Casey 48%, McCormick 44%
A new Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania survey finds 49% of voters support former President Donald Trump, and 48% support Vice President Kamala Harris for president in the Keystone state. With undecided voters’ support allocated, Trump extends to a two-point lead, 51% to 49%. With third-party candidates on the ballot, 47% support both Trump and Harris respectively; 3% support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. No other candidates received above .3% support.
“Pennsylvania likely voters in unions break for Harris by 15 points, 57% to 42%, while those not in a union and without union members in the household break for Trump, 50% to 48%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Those with union members in the household break from Trump, 50% to 42%.”
- Independents are leaning slightly towards Trump, with 48% supporting him compared to 45% for Harris. Suburban voters, however, favor Harris by a small margin, 50% to 47%.
- Among new voters (those who did not vote in 2020), Harris has a significant advantage, leading 61% to 31%.
- Younger voters under 40 support Harris over Trump, 61% to 36%. Trump’s strongest base is among voters aged 50-69, where he leads Harris 57% to 40%. The swing vote appears to be among voters aged 40-49, who are evenly split at 49% each. Voters over 70 lean towards Trump, with 52% supporting him compared to 47% for Harris.
- Trump leads Harris among Protestant voters 58% to 40%, and among Roman Catholic voters 60% to 39%. Harris leads among atheists and agnostic voters, who break 84% to 13% in her favor, and those with no particular religious affiliation, who support her 56% to 39%.
Last month, Trump led Harris 51% to 45% in Pennsylvania among very likely voters, his support dropping two points this month to 49%, and Harris’ support increasing three points, from 45% to 48%.
In the U.S. Senate election between incumbent Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Dave McCormick, 48% support Casey and 44% support McCormick; 8% are undecided. Since last month, Casey’s support among likely voters has stayed at 48%, while McCormick’s support among likely voters decreased from 47% to 44%.
“Six percent of Casey voters support Trump — compared to 1% of McCormick voters who support Harris,” Kimball added.
In the Attorney General election, 43% support Republican David Sunday and Democrat Eugene DePasquale respectively with 14% undecided.
President Biden holds a 38% job approval among Pennsylvania voters, while 54% have an unfavorable view of him. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro holds a 51% job approval, 31% disapprove of the job he is doing as governor.
Forty-eight percent of voters have a favorable view of Vice President Harris, while 47% have a favorable view of Donald Trump. Fifty-two percent have a negative view of Harris while 53% have a negative view of Trump.
Forty-three percent have a favorable view of Tim Walz, while 44% have a favorable view of JD Vance. Forty-three percent have a negative view of the Minnesota governor, while 49% have a negative view of the Ohio Senator.
Half of voters have a favorable view of their Senator Casey, while 45% have a favorable view of David McCormick. Forty-four percent have an unfavorable view of both the Senator and McCormick.
The economy is the top issue for 51% of likely voters in Pennsylvania, followed by threats to democracy (12%), immigration (8%), housing affordability (6%), healthcare (6%), and abortion access (5%).
On the issue of fracking, voters were asked which presidential candidate they trust more to handle the issue. Half (50%) trust Trump more, while 43% trust Harris more. Eight percent trust neither candidate on the issue.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania survey was conducted August 13-14, 2024. The sample of likely Pennsylvania voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text, landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) (both lists provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania.
