Majority of voters have considered leaving California due to the cost of living.
A new Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics/The Hill survey of California’s 22nd district finds a tight race for US Congress: 45.4% support Democrat Rudy Salas, 45% support incumbent Republican David Valadao, and 10% are undecided.
“There is a stark gender divide in the congressional election,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Men break for Valadao, 58% to 31%, while women break for Salas, 60% to 31%.”
“Hispanic voters in the district also break for Salas, 52% to 41%, while white voters break for Valadao, 53% to 33%,” Kimball added.
A majority of 22nd district voters (62%) say they have considered leaving California due to the cost of living, 38% have not.
“Those in their 40s were most likely to respond that they have considered leaving California due to the cost of living, at 75%, followed by those in their 50s, at 69%,” Kimball said.
The economy is the top issue for 34% of CA22 voters, followed by homelessness (16%), immigration (16%), taxes (14%), abortion access (9%), and crime (4%).
“Voters who consider immigration to be the top issue facing their state break for Valadao over Salas, 85% to 15%, along with voters who think the economy to be the top issue, 50% to 44%,” Kimball noted. “Voters who say homelessness is the top issue break for Salas 77% to 14%.”
Voters were asked if they have had to make any trade-offs to choose between paying for food and a series of expenses. A majority (62%) say they have made a tradeoff to choose between paying for food and their utilities, while 38% have not. Forty-seven percent have made tradeoffs to pay for food or housing, while 53% have not. Thirty-six percent have made tradeoffs to choose between paying for food and prescription medications, 64% have not.
Voters were asked if they think two immigration policies at the US border with Mexico would make the situation better or worse. On increasing deportations of people who are in the country, 42% think it would make the border situation better, 33% worse, and 26% no impact. On creating more opportunities for people to legally immigrate to the US, 71% think it would make the situation better, 14% worse, and 15% no impact.
Sixty-seven percent of CA-22 voters are confident that votes across California will be counted accurately in the 2024 presidential election, while a third (33%) are not too confident or not confident at all.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling California 22nd district survey was conducted September 23-26, 2024. The sample of likely voters, n=350, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 5.2 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text and landlines via interactive voice response (phone lists provided by Aristotle) and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English and Spanish.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Nexstar Media.
