Democratic Statewide Candidates Outperforming GOP Candidates
New Emerson College Polling/The Hill surveys of likely voters in seven critical swing states find former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris neck and neck in the 2024 presidential election. In Georgia, 50% support Trump, 47% Harris. In Arizona and Wisconsin, 49% support Trump, 48% support Harris. In Pennsylvania, 48% support Trump, 47% Harris. In Nevada, the candidates are tied with 48% support each. In North Carolina, 49% support Harris, 48% Trump. In Michigan, 49% support Harris, 47% support Trump.
“There has been marginal movement in the presidential election since the late August Emerson swing state polls before the presidential debate,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “In Arizona and North Carolina, Trump lost a point, and Harris gained a point. Trump’s support stayed the same in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Harris’ support decreased by a point in Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, and stayed the same in Wisconsin. In Georgia, Trump gained two points and Harris lost two.”
Voters were asked, regardless of who they support for president, which candidate they expect to be president after the 2024 election. A majority of voters in all swing states expect Harris over Trump to be president in 2024, by a 51% to 48% margin in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Voters expect Harris over Trump in Nevada 50% to 48%, Michigan 52% to 47%, and by a larger 53% to 46% margin in North Carolina.
Statewide Elections
- Arizona: US Senate, 48% support Democrat Ruben Gallego, 42% support Kari Lake. Ten percent are undecided.
- Michigan: US Senate, 47% support Democrat Elissa Slotkin, 42% support Republican Mike Rogers, and 11% are undecided.
- Nevada: US Senate, 48% support incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen, 41% support Republican Sam Brown, and 9% are undecided.
- North Carolina: Governor, 48% support Democrat Josh Stein, 40% support Republican Mark Robinson, 10% are undecided.
- Pennsylvania: US Senate, 47% support incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, 42% support Republican David McCormick, 12% are undecided.
- Wisconsin: US Senate, 49% support incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin, 46% support Republican Eric Hovde, 5% are undecided.
Economic Concerns Top Issue for Voters
The top issue voters name facing their state is the economy, but varies in intensity. Concern for immigration is at its highest in Arizona, while concern for housing affordability is highest in Nevada.
- Arizona: 31% economy, 23% immigration, 12% abortion, 11% threats to democracy, 10% housing affordability
- Georgia: 50% economy, 9% threats to democracy, 9% healthcare, 9% housing affordability, 7% immigration, 6% abortion access
- Michigan: 51% economy, 10% threats to democracy, 9% housing affordability, 7% immigration, 7% healthcare
- Nevada: 39% economy, 16% housing affordability, 9% threats to democracy, 8% education, 8% immigration, 6% healthcare
- North Carolina: 45% economy, 10% housing affordability, 10% immigration
- Pennsylvania: 52% economy, 12% threats to democracy, 8% immigration, 6% abortion access, 6% healthcare
- Wisconsin: 44% economy, 12% threats to democracy, 9% housing affordability, 8% healthcare, 8% immigration, 8% abortion access
METHODOLOGY
The sample size for Arizona is n=868 likely voters, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The sample size for Georgia is n=975 with a credibility interval of +/-3.1%. The sample size for Michigan is n=875 with a credibility interval of +/-3.2%. The sample size for Nevada is n=895 with a credibility interval of +/3.2%. The sample size for Pennsylvania is n=880 with a credibility interval of +/-3.2%. The sample size for each North Carolina and Wisconsin is n=1,000, with a credibility interval of +/-3%.
Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and voter registration/turnout data.
The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English. Data was collected between the evening of September 15-18, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
