New Emerson College Polling/The Hill statewide polls find Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris by ten in Ohio, 53% to 43%, five in Florida, 50% to 45%, four in Texas, 50% to 46%, while Harris leads Trump in California 60% to 36%. Races in Florida and Texas are within the polls’ margin of error, while California and Ohio fall outside the polls’ margin of error.
“The gender divide in the 2024 election shows significant increases in male support for Trump across key states, while Harris has either held steady or gained modestly among female voters, with the most pronounced shifts in California,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
US Senate Elections
In the November U.S. Senate Elections, Schiff leads in California, while Florida, Ohio, and Texas are within the polls’ margin of error.
“There are varying degrees of ticketing splitting in these statewide polls,” Kimball said. “In Ohio, Brown leads by 2 points despite Harris trailing by 10. In Florida, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is down by one, even though Harris is behind by five. In Texas, both Cruz and Trump lead by 4.”
In Florida, 46% support Republican incumbent Senator Rick Scott and 45% support Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Nine percent are undecided.
- Florida independent votes break for Mucarsel-Powell, 47% to 34%, while 19% are undecided.
- Women voters break for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, 48% to 42%, while men break for Scott, 51% to 42%.
In Ohio, 46% support incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, 44% support Republican Bernie Moreno; 10% are undecided. Since March 2024, before the Ohio Republican Primary, when 39% of registered voters supported Brown and 34% Moreno, the difference between the candidates has tightened to two points among likely voters.
- Voters in unions break for Brown, 53% to 36%. Those who are not in unions but a member of their family is favor Moreno, 48% to 37%, while non-union members are split, 45% supporting both candidates.
- Brown leads among independent voters, 48% to 37%.
- Seven percent of Trump voters also support Brown for Senate.
In Texas, 48% support incumbent Senator Ted Cruz, while 44% support Democratic challenger Colin Allred; 8% are undecided. The race has moved more in favor of Cruz since the last Emerson Texas poll of registered voters conducted in January, 2024, which found Cruz with 42% and Allred with 40%.
- Hispanic voters break for Allred, 49% to 37%, along with Black voters, 79% to 12%, while white voters break for Cruz, 59% to 36%.
- Voters under 40 break for Allred, 49% to 39%, voters in their 40s are split, 48% supporting Cruz and 46% Allred, and voters over 50 support Cruz, 53% to 41%.
In California, 55% support Democrat Adam Schiff, while 33% support Republican Steve Garvey. Thirteen percent are undecided.
Top issues
Regarding the Florida ballot measure to provide a constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability, 55% would vote “yes” in support, 26% plan to vote “no”, and 20% are unsure. Support for the measure to legalize marijuana surpasses the 60% threshold: 64% plan to vote “yes” while 27% plan to vote “no”.
The economy is the top issue in California (39%), Florida (37%), and Ohio (49%), while immigration is the top issue for Texas voters (29%) closely followed by the economy (25%).
A majority of Texas voters (55%) consider the current abortion law that bans abortion after six weeks of pregnancy to be “too strict,” while 31% consider it to be about right, and 14% not strict enough.
Candidate Favorability
CA:
- Trump: 36% favorable, 64% unfavorable
- Harris: 61% favorable, 39% unfavorable
FL:
- Trump: 51% favorable, 49% unfavorable
- Harris: 49% favorable, 51% unfavorable
OH:
- Trump: 52% favorable, 48% unfavorable
- Harris: 46% favorable, 54% unfavorable
- Vance: 47% favorable, 47% unfavorable
- Walz: 40% favorable, 45% unfavorable
TX:
- Harris: 49% favorable, 51% unfavorable
- Trump: 51% favorable, 49% unfavorable
Methodology
The sample size for California and Florida is n=815 likely voters, with a respective credibility interval of +/-3.4%. The sample size in Texas is n=845 likely voters, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The sample size for Ohio is n=945, with a credibility interval of +/-3.1%. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education (US Census), and voter registration (state secretary of state) and turnout data (exit polling).
The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web (list provided by Aristotle), along with an online panel provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English. Data was collected between September 3-5, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
