Trump, McMaster Highest Favorable Among GOP Primary Voters
The first public poll by Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media of South Carolina’s special Republican Senate primary to appear on the November ballot, previously held by late Senator Lindsey Graham, finds no clear leader among hypothetical candidates. The poll finds that 16% support Rep. Ralph Norman, 13% primary candidate Mark Lynch, 10% Rep. Nancy Mace, 10% Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, 9% Rep. Russell Fry, 8% Gov. Henry McMaster, 6% Senator Darline Graham Nordone, and 5% former Gov. Mark Sanford. A plurality (18%) are undecided, while 5% would support someone else.
Without the appointed Senator Graham Nordone on the ballot, 14% support Norman, 12% support Mace and Lynch respectively, 9% support Fry, 8% support McMaster, and 4% support Sanford; 22% are undecided.
“Ahead of the filing period next week, no candidate begins as a clear favorite among voters to replace the late Senator,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “If President Trump were to endorse, the race would likely shift significantly as a plurality of undecided voters (46%) say the president’s endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate.”
Forty-one percent of Republican primary voters say an endorsement from President Trump would make them more likely to support a candidate, while 41% say it would make no impact on their vote, and 19% say it would make them less likely to vote for a candidate.
Seventy-seven percent of Republican Primary voters have a favorable view of President Trump, while 21% have an unfavorable view of him. Governor Henry McMaster has a 56% favorable rating, while 33% have an unfavorable view of the Governor. Senator Darlene Graham Nordone holds a 35% favorable rating, while 9% have an unfavorable view of the newly appointed Senator, 39% are unsure, and 17% have never heard of her.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media South Carolina survey was conducted July 14-15, 2026. The sample of South Carolina likely Republican primary voters, n=500, has a margin of error (MOE), of +/- 4.3 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web, and a probability-based panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies using MMS text-to-web. The survey was hosted on QuestionPro. All respondents were recruited using customized links that prevent responses from anyone outside of the poll’s sample frame. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below. The survey was sponsored by Nexstar Media.
