An Emerson College Polling survey in Washington finds 51% of voters support Democratic Senator Patty Murray for re-election, while 42% support Republican Tiffany Smiley. Seven percent are undecided. 

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said, “Senator Murray has a considerable 16-point lead among women voters, whereas male voters are evenly split: 45% support Smiley and 45% support Murray.”

Half of voters (50%) hold a favorable view of Murray, while 45% have an unfavorable view of the Senator. Six percent are unsure or have never heard of Murray. Forty-two percent have a favorable view of Tiffany Smiley, while 39% have an unfavorable view of Smiley. Nineteen percent are either unsure or have never heard of Smiley. 

Voters are nearly split on President Biden’s job performance: 46% disapprove of the job he is doing as president, and 45% approve. Nine percent are neutral or have no opinion. 

In a hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, 49% would support Biden, 39% Trump, and 8% someone else. Four percent are undecided.

Voters are split between the economy (28%) and ‘threats to democracy’ (26%) as their most important issue in determining their vote this November. Other issues include abortion (12%), crime (11%), immigration (7%), and healthcare (6%). 

“It’s worth noting that in Washington, concern over the  economy is the top issue for 28% of voters. This is the economy’s lowest performance among all Emerson polls this year. Instead, ‘threats to democracy,’ is 11 points higher in Washington than in the September Emerson national poll,” Kimball said. 

Regarding the recent FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, 35% say it makes no difference on their likelihood of supporting Trump in 2024, while 33% say it makes them more likely to support Trump, and 33% say it makes them less likely to support Trump if he were to run. Of those who say it makes no difference, voters break for Democrat Patty Murray in the Senate over the Republican by 17 points (54% to 37%) and President Biden over Donald Trump by 24 points (51% to 27%). 

A plurality of voters (48%) say the overturning of Roe v. Wade makes no difference on their likelihood to vote this November, while 47% say it makes them much more likely (41%) or somewhat more likely (6%) to vote. 


The Emerson College Polling Washington poll was conducted September 30-October 1, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=782, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, party registration, region, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using cell phones via SMS-to-web, web survey via email, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.