Incumbent Democratic Sen. Baldwin Leads Potential GOP Opponent Hovde, 46% to 39%
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey in Wisconsin finds 45% of voters support former President Donald Trump and 42% President Joe Biden in a 2024 presidential election matchup. Twelve percent are undecided. Since January, Biden’s support has decreased by three percentage points, while Trump’s support increased by one.
“Independent voters in Wisconsin break for President Biden over Trump 41% to 35%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted. “Voters under 30 are split: 39% support Trump, 37% Biden, and 25% are undecided.”
With third-party candidates on the ballot, 41% support Trump, 37% Biden, and 7% support Robert Kennedy Jr., 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively. Thirteen percent are undecided.
The economy is the top issue for 31% of Wisconsin voters, followed by threats to democracy (13%), immigration (11%), healthcare (10%), education (7%), housing affordability (7%), crime (7%), and abortion access (7%).
“Voters who find the economy to be the top issue break for Trump over Biden, 57% to 24%, while voters who say threats to democracy is the top issue break for Biden over Trump, 83% to 14%,” Kimball said.
President Biden’s age raises serious doubts in the minds of 62% of voters in supporting Biden in 2024, while 39% say Biden’s age is not a serious consideration for them. Trump’s criminal indictments raise doubts for 56% of voters, while 44% do not consider his indictments to be a serious consideration in their vote.
In a hypothetical U.S. Senate Election between incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin and Republican Eric Hovde, Baldwin leads 46% to 39%. Fifteen percent are undecided.
“Among those who support Trump in the presidential general election, 9% plan to split their ticket and vote for Baldwin, 74% support Hovde, and 17% are undecided,” Kimball said. “Of Biden voters, 90% support Baldwin, 4% plan to split their ticket and vote for Hovde, and 5% are undecided.”
Biden holds a 38% job approval among Wisconsin voters; 53% disapprove of the job he is doing in office. Governor Evers holds a 46% approval; 41% disapprove of the job he is doing in office. Forty-four percent think the things in Wisconsin are on the wrong track, while 36% think the state is headed in the right direction.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill Wisconsin survey was conducted February 20-24, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data (WI S.O.S.).
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, cell phones via MMS-to-web, a consumer list of emails (both provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found under “Full Results.”
