Baldwin 45%, Hovde 42%

A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Wisconsin voters finds 46% support Donald Trump and 43% support President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election. Eleven percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, 52% support Trump, and 48% Biden. 

“Independent voters in Wisconsin break for Biden 42% to 37%, with 21% undecided,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “The race tightens among independents when undecideds are pushed: 51% overall support Biden, 49% Trump.”

Sixty-three percent of voters are satisfied with the options of Biden and Trump, while 37% say they want to see a third-party candidate on the ballot. With third-party candidates on the ballot, 43% support Trump, 40% Biden, 6% Robert Kennedy, and 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively. Ten percent are undecided.

Fifty-one percent think Donald Trump deserves another chance to run for president after January 6, while 49% think he does not deserve another chance. 

In a hypothetical matchup for U.S. Senate, 45% support incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin, while 42% support Republican Eric Hovde. Fourteen percent are undecided. 

  • Women voters break for Baldwin 50% to 36%, while men break for Hovde, 49% to 40%. 
  • Independent voters break toward Baldwin over Hovde 41% to 36%. 

The economy is the most important issue for 35% of voters, followed by healthcare (11%), immigration (10%), threats to democracy (10%), education (9%), housing affordability (9%), abortion access (8%), and crime (6%). 

President Biden holds a 38% job approval and 53% disapproval. Governor Tony Evers holds a 42% job approval and 42% disapproval.


The Emerson College Polling/The Hill Wisconsin survey was conducted March 14-18, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data (WI S.O.S.).

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.

Data was collected by contacting an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and a consumer list of emails (both provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.

This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found under “Full Results.”