Hogan with Majority Support in GOP Primary, But Trails in General Election
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill/DC News Now survey in Maryland finds the Democratic U.S. Senate primary in a dead heat: 42% of voters support Angela Alsobrooks, while 41% support David Trone. Twelve percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward and are accounted for in the candidate’s total support, Alsobrooks’ support increases to 47%, and Trone’s to 44%.
“Since the February Maryland poll, Alsobrooks’ support increased 25 points, from 17% to 42%, and Trone’s nine points, from 32% to 41%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Among those who already voted, Trone leads 51% to 45%, while those who are likely but have not yet voted break for Alsobrooks, 41% to 37%.”
- Alsobrooks edges out Trone among women voters, 43% to 38%, while Trone leads among men, 45% to 41%.
- Alsobrooks leads Trone among Black voters, 56% to 28%, while Trone leads among white voters, 48% to 35%.
In the Republican Senate primary, a majority (56%) support Larry Hogan, 18% support Robin Ficker, and 20% are undecided. Since the February poll following Hogan’s announcement to enter the race, Hogan’s support increased 13 points, from 43% to 56%.
Looking at the November general election, both Alsobrooks and Trone lead Hogan in hypothetical matchups: Alsobrooks leads 48% to 38%, with 14% undecided, and Trone leads 49% to 38%, with 14% undecided.
Since February, Hogan’s support has decreased from 42% against Trone, and 44% against Alsobrooks, while the Democratic candidates have increased support in the general election, Trone from 42% to 49%, and Alsobrooks from 37% to 48%.
Voters were asked if they had a favorable or unfavorable view of Alsobrooks, Trone, and Hogan.
- Hogan: 63% favorable, 34% unfavorable, 3% never heard of
- Trone: 54% favorable, 32% unfavorable, 14% never heard of
- Alsobrooks: 54% favorable, 24% unfavorable, 21% never heard of
President Biden holds a 48% job approval among Maryland voters, while 43% disapprove, and 10% are neutral. Biden leads Trump, 56% to 35%, with 10% undecided.
With third-party candidates included on the ballot, Biden leads 50% to 33%, while 6% support Robert Kennedy Jr., 3% Cornel West, and 1% Jill Stein. Eight percent are undecided.
The economy is the top issue for 31% of voters, followed by crime (17%), housing affordability (12%), threats to democracy (11%), healthcare (9%), education (7%), and immigration (6%).
Fifty-one percent of voters generally disapprove of the pro-Palestine demonstrations on college campuses, while 30% approve, and 19% are not familiar or have no opinion.
- Approval of the college demonstrations generally decreases with age, from 51% approval among voters under 30 to 21% among voters over 60.
METHODOLOGY
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill Maryland poll was conducted May 6-8, 2024. The sample consisted of n=1,115 Maryland registered voters and with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The Democratic Primary consisted of n=462, with a credibility interval of +/-4.5%. The Republican Primary consisted of n=248, with a credibility interval of +/-6.2%. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, party registration, race, and education based on US Census parameters, and Maryland voter registration and voter turnout data by regions (MD SOS). Data was collected by contacting a list of cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR), provided by Aristotle, and an online panel provided by CINT.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know that with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times. Numbers included in the press release are rounded to the nearest whole number, therefore totals might not always equal 100.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, full results and cross tabulations can be found below.
