Josh Hawley 47%, Lucas Kunce 38% in U.S. Senate Election
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll in Missouri finds 23% of voters support Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft and 20% support Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe in the August Republican Primary for Governor; 46% are undecided. Six percent support State Senator Bill Eigel.
“Kehoe’s strength is older voters: 26% of voters over 60 support Kehoe while 18% support Ashcroft. Ashcroft performs best with voters in their 30s, 40s, and 50s: 31% of whom support Ashcroft while 15% support Kehoe,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
In the November presidential election, 53% of Missouri voters support former president Donald Trump, 40% support President Joe Biden, and 7% are undecided. With third-party candidates on the ballot, Trump’s support decreases to 50%, and Biden’s to 35%, while 7% support Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively.
“New voters, those who did not vote in 2020, break for Trump over Biden, 46% to 31%, reflecting a trend in statewide and national polling,” Kimball said.
In the U.S. Senate Election, 47% support incumbent Republican Senator Josh Hawley, while 38% support Democrat Lucas Kunce. Ten percent are undecided. Since February, Hawley’s support has increased by four points, from 43% to 47%, while Kunce’s support increased by eight points, from 30% to 38%.
The economy is the top issue for 34% of Missouri voters, followed by abortion access at 12%, immigration (10%), healthcare (9%), crime (9%), education (8%), and housing affordability (7%).
“The share of voters who say abortion is the most important issue facing their state in Missouri is higher than any state poll we have conducted in the past year,” Kimball noted.
“These voters break for Biden and Kunce on the ballot in November, for Biden over Trump 83% to 13% and Kunce over Hawley 79% to 12%. Voters who say the economy is the top issue break for Trump 72% to 21%, and Hawley 65% to 19%.”
A majority of Missouri voters (56%) agree with the Supreme Court ruling on the availability of mifepristone, a pharmaceutical used in medicated abortion, while 25% disagree and 19% are not sure.
Missouri voters are split on sports betting, if it were to be on the ballot: 38% would vote to legalize sports betting, 35% would vote against it, and 26% are not sure.
Voters were asked how important it is to them that the Kansas City Chiefs and Royals remain in Missouri.
- 63% of voters find it important that the Chiefs stay in Missouri, 37% do not find it important
- 58% of voters find it important that the Royals stay in Missouri, 42% find it not important.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey in Missouri was conducted June 17-19, 2024. The sample consisted of n=1000 registered voters, with a credibility interval of +/-3%. The sample of likely Republican Primary voters consists of a sample of n=489, with a credibility interval of +/-4.4%.
The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, and age based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, voter registration data provided by the Missouri Secretary of State, and voter data provided by Aristotle, Inc.
Data was collected by landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR), phone lists provided by Aristotle and an online panel provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Nexstar Media.
