New Emerson College Polling surveys of Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, and South Dakota find that Trump leads Biden in Missouri, Ohio, and South Dakota, while Biden leads Trump in Colorado by six points. With nine months until the general election, several key voting demographics, including women, independents, and young voters, appear less enthusiastic toward Biden.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said: “Both Biden and Trump are experiencing lower levels of support compared to 2020, with a higher degree of uncertainty among voters. Despite this, Trump appears to be gaining an advantage from the overall underperformance of both candidates and lower enthusiasm levels.”

In Colorado, Biden leads Trump by six points, 41% to 35%. In Ohio, Biden now trails by 11 points, 47% to 36%. In Missouri, Trump again leads by 17 points, 49% to 32%. Eleven percent would vote for someone else, and 8% are undecided. In South Dakota, Trump leads Biden by 29 points, 55% to 26%. 

Gender Divide on 2024 Ballot Test

  • In Colorado, women break for Biden 42% to 28%; 16% are undecided and 14% support someone else. Men break for Trump 42% to 40%, with 9% voting for someone else and 9% undecided
  • In Ohio, 42% of female voters in Ohio support Joe Biden over Donald Trump (39%). Ten percent are undecided and nine percent would vote for someone else. Men break for Trump 52% to 32%, 8% would vote for someone else and 7% are undecided. 
  • In Missouri, 48% of women plan to vote for Biden, 33% for Trump. Ten percent of women plan to vote for someone else and 10% are undecided. Men break for Trump 52% to 31%, 12% plan to vote for someone else and 6% are undecided. 
  • Majorities of men and women support Trump in South Dakota: 60% of men and 51% of women. 

Significant Ports of Voters Under 30 Undecided or Voting for Third Option

  • 35% of voters under 30 in Colorado support Biden and 29% support Trump. Twenty percent of voters under 30 plan to vote for someone else and 16% are undecided. 
  • In Ohio, 38% Trump of voters under 30 support Trump, while 35% support Biden. Twelve percent plan to vote for someone else, and 15% are undecided. 
  • In Missouri, 39% of voters under 30 support Trump, 35% Biden, 13% someone else, and 13% are undecided. 
  • In South Dakota, a majority (57%) of voters under 30 support Trump, while 21% support Biden. Fifteen percent are someone else and six percent are undecided.

Independent Voters

  • Independent voters in Colorado break for Biden by five points, 35% to 30%.  Eighteen percent would vote for someone else and 17% are undecided. 
  • Independent voters in Missouri support Trump 36% to 29%. Eighteen percent would vote for someone else and 17% are undecided.
  • Independents in Ohio break for Trump over Biden 34% to 27%, with 19% supporting someone else, and 20% undecided. 

Education & Party Divides

  • Colorado voters whose highest level of education is high school or less prefer Trump over Biden, 42% to 25%. Biden leads Trump among college graduates by 11 points, 44% to 33%. A majority (65%) of voters with a postgraduate degree support Biden, compared to 22% who support Trump.
  • South Dakotans of all educational attainments prefer Trump to Biden; 65% of high school or less support Trump to Biden’s 17%. A majority (61%) of those whose highest education is vocational or technical school support Trump, compared to 28% who support Biden. Half (50%) of college-educated voters prefer Trump, compared to 30% who support Biden, and Trump leads among postgraduates 44% to 43%.

Trump Ballot Access Debate

Voters were asked if Donald Trump should be on the Republican Primary ballot or if the decision should be left to the courts. In Colorado, 46% of voters believe the decision should be left to the courts, while 40% believe Trump should be on the ballot. Fourteen percent are unsure. In Missouri, 51% think Trump should be on the ballot, and 36% think it is up to the courts. In South Dakota, a majority of voters (54%) believe Trump should be on the ballot, while 36% believe the decision should be left to the courts.

Hawley Leads Kunce by 13 Points, Voters Support Allowing More Exceptions to Abortion 

The Missouri poll asked registered voters which candidate they would support in November, Republican Senator Josh Hawley or Democratic candidate Lucas Kunce. Hawley leads Kunce by 13 points, 43% to 30%, in a hypothetical U.S. Senate matchup. Twenty percent of voters are undecided on which candidate they would support come November.

  • Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said: “Hawley holds the majority of Republican support and Kunce the majority of Democratic support; however, independent voters are split between the two candidates. As Republican voters outnumber Democrats in Missouri, Kunce needs to win over the 36% of independents who are currently undecided to be more competitive.”

Missouri was the first state to enact a ban on abortion following the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision in 2022, making abortion only permitted in very specific cases of medical emergency to prevent death of a pregnant woman, with no exception for rape or incest. Missouri voters were asked if the state should have a total ban where “a woman should never be allowed to have an abortion,” if “a woman should be allowed to have an abortion only in cases of rape or incest or when the woman’s life is in danger,” or if “a woman should be allowed to have an abortion as a matter of personal choice.” Voters are split between the second and third option: 45% think it should be allowed with some exceptions, 44% think it should be allowed as a matter of personal choice. Eleven percent think a woman should never be allowed to have an abortion.

  • Majorities of Democrats (71%) and independent (51%) voters think a woman should be allowed to have an abortion as a matter of personal choice, whereas a majority of Republican voters (61%) think abortion should only be allowed in cases of rape or incest, or if the mother’s life is in danger. 
  • Those who think a woman should never be allowed to have an abortion break for Hawley over Kunce 60% to 12%. Those who support limited exceptions also break for Hawley, 60% to 16%. Those who think abortion should be allowed as a matter of personal choice break for Kunce, 50% to 22%. 

If an initiative were on the ballot this year to allow sports betting in Missouri, 62% of voters would vote in favor of sports betting, while 38% would vote against sports betting. 

  • Sixty-nine percent of men would vote in favor of sports betting, compared to 57% of women. Forty-four percent of women would vote against, while 31% of men would vote against legal sports betting. 
  • Support for sports betting is highest among Democratic voters at 70%, followed by 67% of independents, and 54% of Republican voters. 

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling Colorado, Ohio, Missouri and South Dakota polls were conducted between January 23-January 28, 2024. The Missouri sample consisted of 1,830 registered voters, with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/- 2.2% percentage points. The Ohio sample consisted of 1,844 registered voters, with a credibility interval +/- 2.2 percentage points. The Colorado sample consisted of 1,856 registered voters, with a credibility interval of +/- 2.2 percentage points. The South Dakota sample consisted of 1,777 registered voters, with a credibility interval of +/- 2.2 percentage points. The data sets were weighted respectively by gender, age, party, race, and education based on U.S. Census parameters, and state voter registration and voter turnout data by regions. Data was collected by contacting a list of landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR), along with an online panel provided by Alchemer. 

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.

This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and questions in this release were sponsored by Emerson College. These questions are part of a larger study conducted with the MiddleWest Review. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found here. 

FULL RESULTS