Cruz 49%, Allred 45%
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill/Nexstar Media poll of Texas voters finds 51% of voters support former President Donald Trump, while 46% support Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Three percent are undecided. When undecided voters were asked whom they lean toward, Trump’s support increased to 52% and Harris to 47%. Since the early September Emerson Texas poll, Trump’s support increased by one point while Harris held 46%.
“Hispanic voters in Texas break for Harris 54% to 41%, and black voters 87% to 8%, while white voters break for Trump, 64% to 33%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Among Hispanic voters, Harris has more support among women, with 62%, than men, 46%. The overall gender divide finds women break for Harris by six while men break for Trump by 19.”
Regardless of who they support for president, 51% expect Trump to win, while 49% expect Harris to win. Forty-six percent have a favorable view of Kamala Harris, while 54% have an unfavorable view of her. Trump’s favorability is split: 50% have a favorable view of the former president and 50% have a favorable view of him.
In the US Senate Election between incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz and Democratic Congressman Colin Allred, 49% support Cruz and 45% support Allred. Six percent are undecided. Cruz and Allred both increased a point since the poll earlier this month, which found 44% supporting Allred and 48% Cruz.
Half of voters (50%) have an unfavorable view of Cruz, while 48% have a favorable view of him. Forty-four percent of voters view Allred favorably, while 40% have an unfavorable view of him. Fifteen percent have never heard of the Democratic candidate.
A majority of Texas voters (56%) disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president, while 35% approve. Forty-six percent approve of the job Greg Abbott is doing as governor, while 44% disapprove.
Voters were asked if the current abortion law in Texas, which bans abortion after approximately six weeks of pregnancy, is too strict, not strict enough, or about right. A majority of Texas voters (53%) think the current abortion law is too strict, 31% think the law is about right, and 16% think it is not strict enough.
- A majority of Democrats (81%) and independents (61%) think the abortion law is too strict, while 49% of Republicans think the law is about right.
Immigration is the top issue for 32% of Texas voters, followed by the economy at 27%, abortion access at 11%, threats to democracy at 9%, education at 6%, and healthcare at 5%.
Immigration is the top issue for a majority of Republican voters (53%), while Democrats are more split between the economy (25%) and abortion access (22%).
METHODOLOGY
The Texas survey was conducted September 22-24, 2024. Nexstar co-sponsors include KIAH, KFDX, KXAN, KVEO, KETK, KMID, KAMR, KTSM, KAMC/KLBK, KRBC/KTAB, KSAN/KLST, and KWKT/KYLE.
The sample of likely voters, n=950, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on information provided by voter registration/statewide demographic databases.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text, (list provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Nexstar Media.
