The first Emerson College Polling survey of the November US Senate Election in Ohio finds Republican nominee JD Vance with 45%, over his Democratic opponent Tim Ryan at 42%. Four percent plan to vote for someone else and 10% are undecided.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College polling said, “A gender divide exists in the race for US Senate; women voters support Ryan over Vance, and male voters support Vance over Ryan. That said, male voters break at a more significant 20-point margin for Vance, whereas women voters break for Ryan by a 15-point margin.”
Kimball continued, “Both Vance and Ryan have strong bases of support, and the race tightens to a one-point lead for Vance among the very motivated and very likely voters in Ohio, whereas Vance leads by a larger margin among somewhat likely and somewhat motivated voters.”
While Vance leads Ryan in the ballot test, he trails his opponent on favorability; 50% have a very (27%) or somewhat (23%) favorable view of Vance whereas 54% have a very (33%) or somewhat (21%) favorable view of Ryan. Vance is also seen more unfavorably than Ryan; 41% have a somewhat (15%) or very (27%) unfavorable view of Vance, whereas 36% hold a somewhat (16%) or very (19%) unfavorable view of Ryan.
Voters were asked, regardless of whom they support, which candidate they expect to win. A majority of voters (52%) expect JD Vance to win, whereas 48% expect Tim Ryan to win.
In the gubernatorial general election, Governor Mike DeWine has a comfortable 16-point lead outside the poll’s margin of error over Democrat Nan Whaley, leading 49% to 33%. Eight percent plan to vote for someone else and 11% are undecided.
President Biden holds a 39% job approval among Ohio voters while 56% disapprove of the job he is doing as president.
In a hypothetical 2024 Presidential Election between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, 53% of Ohio Midterm voters plan to vote for Trump and 39% for Biden.
A plurality of Ohio voters (39%) say the recent FBI search of Mar-a-Lago makes them more likely to support Donald Trump for president in 2024, while 35% say it makes them less likely to support Trump; 27% say it makes no difference.
“A majority of rural voters, 55%, say they are more likely to support the former president following the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago. Suburban voters are more split, 38% say it makes them less likely to support Trump and 35% say it makes them more likely to vote for the former president in two years,” Kimball said.
The Ohio Republican congressional delegation holds a 10-point lead over congressional Democrats in a generic ballot test, 51% to 41%; 8% are undecided.
Half of Ohio voters (50%) think the economy, including jobs, inflation, and taxes, is the most important issue facing Ohio, followed by abortion access (12%), healthcare (10%), crime (8%), and education (8%).
“Voters who are most concerned about the economy break for Vance over Ryan by a 35-point margin. On the other hand, those who say abortion access and healthcare break for Ryan over Vance by 83 and 66-point margins,” Kimball noted.
A plurality of Ohio voters (34%) regard Monkeypox as a minor threat to public health in the United States, while 31% do not consider it a threat, 26% consider it a moderate threat, and 10% consider it a major threat.
Caller ID
The Emerson College Polling survey of Ohio voters was conducted, August 15-16 2022. The sample consisted of somewhat and very likely general election voters, n=925, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by age, gender, region, race and education based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.
