An Emerson College Polling/WGN-TV/The Hill survey in Illinois finds a majority of voters (51%) support Democratic Governor J.B. Pritzker for re-election, while 36% support Republican State Senator Darren Bailey. Five percent plan to vote for someone else and 8% are undecided.

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Governor Pritzker holds a two point lead over Bailey among men, 46% to 44%. The Governor’s lead expands significantly among women voters, among whom he leads his opponent by 25 points.”

Fifty-four percent of Illinois voters have a favorable opinion of Governor Pritzker, while 41% have an unfavorable view of the Governor. Thirty-six percent of Illinois voters have a favorable view of Darren Bailey, while 43% have an unfavorable view of Bailey. 

In the election for US Senate, half of Illinois voters (50%) plan to vote for incumbent Democrat Tammy Duckworth while 31% support Republican Kathy Salvi. Sixteen percent are undecided and 4% plan to vote for someone else. 

President Joe Biden has a 49% job approval among Illinois voters, 44% disapprove of the job he is doing as president.

In a hypothetical 2024 presidential match-up between President Biden and former President Trump, 51% would support Biden, 38% Trump, 7% someone else, and 4% are undecided. A plurality of voters (38%) say the recent FBI search of Mar-a-Lago makes them less likely to support Trump if he runs for election in 2024, while 33% say it makes no difference on their vote, and 28% say it makes them more likely to support Trump.

The economy is the most important issue to 35% of Illinois voters, followed by threats to democracy (17%), abortion access (14%), and crime (10%).

“Fifty-seven percent of those who say the economy is the top issue plan to support Darren Bailey for Governor and 58% of those who say crime is their top issue support Bailey. By contrast, 84% of those who say threats to democracy is their top issue and 90% of those who say abortion access is their top issue plan to vote for Pritzker,” Kimball noted.

A majority of Illinois voters (54%) support a statewide ban of assault-style weapons, while a third (33%) oppose the ban, and 13% are unsure.

A plurality of Illinois voters (46%) support the state increasing funding for abortion clinics to accomodate patients from neighbording states, while 37% oppose, and 17% are unsure. 

As Illinois is set to eliminate cash bail on January 1, 2023, a plurality of voters (48%) think the measure will increase crime, 29% think it will have no impact on crime, and 11% think it will decrease crime. Thirteen percent have not heard of this policy.

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill Illinois poll was conducted September 21-23, 2022. The sample consisted of somewhat and very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.02 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, region, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using cell phones via SMS-to-web, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel.

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