In the election for US Senate, incumbent Republican Chuck Grassley holds an eleven point lead over Democratic candidate Michael Franken, 49% to 38%. Nine percent are undecided and 4% plan to vote for someone else.

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Franken is most competitive with suburban voters and women voters, both of which he trails Grassley by one point. However, among rural voters, Grassley holds a 33-point lead, and among men, he leads by 21 points.”

Half of Iowa voters have a favorable view of Senator Grassley, while 44% have an unfavorable view of the Senator. Forty percent of voters have a favorable view of Michael Franken, while 32% have an unfavorable view of him. While 29% are unsure or have never heard of Franken, only 6% have no opinion or have not heard of Grassley.

In the gubernatorial election, a majority of voters (53%) plan to support incumbent Republican Kim Reynolds, while 36% plan to support Democrat Deidre DeJear. Nine percent are undecided and 2% plan to vote for someone else.

Fifty-five percent of voters have a favorable view of Governor Reynolds, while 43% have an unfavorable view of her. A plurality of voters (41%) are either unsure or have never heard of her opponent DeJear, while 33% have a favorable view of her, and 27% have an unfavorable view of her.

A majority of Iowa voters (56%) disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president, while 34% approve and 10% are neutral.

In a hypothetical 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would support Trump, 39% would support Biden, 10% would support someone else, and 5% are undecided. A plurality of voters (38%) say the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago makes no difference on their likelihood to support Trump if he were to run for election in 2024, while 34% say it makes them more likely to support Trump, and 28% say it makes them less likely to support the former president.

The economy is the most important issue for 45% of voters, followed by threats to democracy (17%), abortion access (12%), healthcare (7%) and immigration (7%).

Kimball added, “Voters who say the economy is their most important issue break for Republican Grassley by 61 points, and for Republican Reynolds by 69 points. By contrast, those who say threats to democracy are their most important issue break for Franken by 57 points and DeJear by 50 points.”

Forty-nine percent of voters are either much more likely (39%) or somewhat more likely (10%) to vote in the 2022 Elections because of the overturning of Roe v. Wade, while 48% say it makes no difference on their likelihood to vote.

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling Iowa poll was conducted October 2-4, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=959, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, party registration, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using cell phones via SMS-to-web, web survey via email, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.

INTERACTIVE REPORT