The latest Emerson College Polling survey in Michigan finds Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer with a five-point lead over her Republican opponent Tudor Dixon, 49% to 44% ahead of the November election. Four percent of voters are undecided. Regardless of whom they support, 65% expect Whitmer to be re-elected, while 36% expect Dixon to be the next Governor.

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said, “There is a distinct gender divide between men and women voters in Michigan: Governor Whitmer holds a 16-point lead among women voters, while Dixon holds a seven-point lead among male voters. In addition, Whitmer leads Dixon among Independent voters, 46% to 39%.”

A majority of Michigan voters (51%) have a favorable view of Governor Whitmer, while 46% have an unfavorable view of her. Forty-one percent of voters have a favorable view of Tudor Dixon, while 50% have an unfavorable view of her.

President Biden holds a 53% disapproval among Michigan voters, while 41% approve of the job he is doing as president. In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, voters are split: 44% support Biden and 44% support Trump. Nine percent would vote for someone else and 3% are undecided.

A plurality of voters (38%) say the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago makes no difference on their likelihood to support Trump if he were to run in 2024; 33% say it makes them more likely to support him, and 29% say it makes them less likely to support Trump.

The economy is the top issue for 43% of voters, followed by abortion access (22%), threats to democracy (11%), and healthcare (7%).

Kimball noted, “For those who say the economy is their top issue, 69% plan to vote for Dixon. For those whom abortion is their top issue, 84% plan to vote for Whitmer. This follows the nation-wide trend in Emerson statewide polls; voters who say the economy is their top issue break for Republicans on the ballot and abortion or threats to democracy break for Demcorats on the ballot.”

A majority of voters (54%) are more likely to vote in the 2022 Elections following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, while 43% say it makes no difference on their vote. Three percent are less likely to vote because of the overturning of Roe v. Wade.

A majority of voters (52%) plan to vote “yes” on Michigan Proposal 3, also known as the “Reproductive Freedom For All Proposal,” which would amend the State Constitution to establish the individual right to abortion, allowing the state to regulate abortion in some cases and forbid prosecution of individuals exercising the right to abortion. Thirty-eight percent plan to vote “no.” Ten percent are undecided.

“Both men and women voters plan to vote ‘yes’ on the proposal, however women plan to vote ‘yes’ at a significantly higher rate: men plan to vote ‘yes’ by a six-point margin compared to women by a 22-point margin,” Kimball noted.

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling survey of Michigan voters was conducted October 12-14, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely general election voters, n=580, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, party affiliation, and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, an online panel, a voter registration list of emails, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.

INTERACTIVE REPORT