The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Georgia voters ahead of the December 6 Senate runoff election finds Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock with 49% support and Republican Herschel Walker with 47%; 4% are undecided. With undecided voters’ support allocated, Warnock leads 51% to 49%.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said, “Warnock’s base lies with voters under 50–a 55% majority support him for re-election–whereas Walker holds a similar 55% majority among voters over 50.” Kimball continued, “The early vote breaks for Warnock by about 29 points, 63% to 34%, whereas those who have yet to cast their ballot break for Walker by eight points 52% to 44%.”
Regardless of whom voters support, 57% expect Senator Warnock to be re-elected, while 43% expect Walker to win.
Kimball noted, “Despite the ballot test being well within the poll’s margin of error, a Walker win would surprise the majority of voters. About 1 in 5 Republicans expect their nominee to lose. This reflects a significant shift since the last pre-general election poll earlier this month, where voters were nearly 50-50 if Warnock or Walker would win.”
President Biden holds a 42% approval among Georgia runoff voters, 52% disapprove of the job he is doing as president. Since the final pre-general election Emerson poll, Biden’s approval has increased by one percentage point and his disapproval has held at 52%.
In a hypothetical 2024 Presidential Election between President Biden and former President Trump, 44% of runoff voters would vote for Biden and 43% for Trump. Eleven percent would vote for someone else and 2% are undecided. However, in an election between President Biden and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, 47% would vote for DeSantis and 43% for Biden. Six percent would vote for someone else and 4% are undecided.
Kimball noted, “Among Georgia independent voters, Biden leads Trump by 6 points in a hypothetical contest, with 20% supporting ‘someone else.’ However, when the matchup is Biden vs. DeSantis, the Republican leads by three points, only 8% support “someone else.”
Kimball continued, “Among women, Biden leads Trump by seven points. Against DeSantis, Biden’s lead shrinks to two points. Among men, Trump leads Biden by eight, and DeSantis leads Biden by 11.”
The economy remains the top issue for Georgia voters, 43% say it is the most important issue in determining their vote in the run-off, followed by “threats to democracy” (13%) and abortion access (12%). Since the general election, the economy has decreased in concern by three percentage points, while concern for “threats to democracy” and abortion access have increased one point respectively.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling survey of Georgia voters was conducted November 28-30, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=888 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, party affiliation and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, an online panel, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.
