Secretary of State, Attorney General Races Wide Open

A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey in Louisiana finds 40% of voters support Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry to replace term-limited Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards. Twenty-two percent (22%) support Democrat and former Secretary of the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development Shawn Wilson, and 5% support State Senator Sharon Hewitt and Stephen Waguespack respectively. No other candidate surpasses 5%. Eighteen percent (18%) are undecided ahead of the October 14 election. 

Governor Edwards has a 39% job approval in his last term, while 43% disapprove of the job he has done as Governor.

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said, “In the nonpartisan jungle primary in Louisiana where a candidate needs 50% support to avoid a general election, Landry is within reach of that threshold while Wilson is trying to force a run-off. With 18% of voters undecided, a run-off election hangs in the balance.”

“Republican candidates have appeared to make some inroads among those who supported Edwards in the 2019 nonpartisan primary, with 45% of those who voted for Edwards supporting Wilson while 15% support Landry,” Kimball said.

In the election for Secretary of State, a majority of voters (66%) are undecided. Attorney Gwen Collins-Greenup leads the field with 10% of voter support, followed by Public Service Commissioner Mike Francis at 6%, former State Representative Nancy Landry at 5%, and Thomas J. Kennedy and State Representative Clay Schexnayder at 4% respectively.

Arthur A. Morrell, Brandon Trosclair, and Amanda Smith Jennings round out the field with each receiving 2% of voter support. 

A majority of voters (80%) are also undecided in the Attorney General Election, while 7% support State Rep. John Stefanski, 5% support Attorney Lindsey Cheek, 4% support Solicitor General Liz Baker Murrill, 3% Attorney Marty Maley and 1% support Attorney Perry Walker Terrebonne.

Majority of Louisiana Voters Support Trump and Biden in Primary Elections

President Joe Biden holds a 30% job approval in Louisiana, while 61% disapprove of the job he is doing in office. A majority of Democratic Presidential Primary voters (59%) plan to support President Biden as the nominee, while 16% support Robert Kennedy Jr., and 2% support Marianne Williamson. Twenty-two percent are undecided. 

In the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary, 75% of Republican primary voters plan to support former President Donald Trump, while 10% support Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and 10% are undecided. Louisiana is a closed Presidential primary state.

Home and Auto Insurance Increases Burden Louisiana Voters

A plurality of Louisiana voters (41%) think their neighborhood is as safe now as it was a year ago, while 38% think their neighborhoods are somewhat less safe (21%) or much less safe (17%). Twenty-one percent think their neighborhood is somewhat safer (11%), or much safer (10%). 

A majority of Louisiana voters (62%) say they have been notified by homeowner or floor insurance of an increase in their monthly annual premium in the last year. Eighteen percent do not have homeowner or flood insurance, and 20% have not experienced a rate increase. Of those who have experienced this increase, 54% find it to be a major financial burden, 37% find it to be a minor financial burden, and 9% think it will not be a burden at all. 

A larger percentage of voters (70%) have been notified by their car insurer of an increase in their monthly or annual premium in the last year. Twenty-four percent have not been notified of an increase and 5% do not have car insurance. Of those who have been notified of a rate increase, 56% find it to be a major financial burden, 37% find it to be a minor financial burden, and 7% find it to not be a burden at all.

As the ban on gender-affirming care for transgender care is scheduled to go into effect at the start of 2024, 51% of Louisiana voters oppose such a ban. Twenty-nine percent support it, and 20% are unsure or have no opinion.

A majority (66%) of Louisiana voters say the current K-12 education system in Louisiana is worse than the education they received, while 19% say education is about the same, and 15% say current education is better.

METHODOLOGY 

The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Louisiana survey was conducted August 13-14, 2023. The sample of somewhat and very likely gubernatorial voters, n=982, has a margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, age, and party registration based on 2023 registration modeling. Modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters and Louisiana voter registration and election data. 

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and understand with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.

Data was collected by contacting landlines via IVR, cell phones via SMS-to-web, and a consumer list of emails. 

All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found here. This survey was sponsored by Nexstar Media.