Residents’ Opinions Split on Gov. Brad Little
An Emerson College Polling survey in Idaho finds Governor Brad Little with a 28% approval rating, while 29% disapprove of the job he is doing as Governor. Forty-three percent are neutral. President Joe Biden holds a 21% approval rating in Idaho, while two-thirds of residents (66%) disapprove of his performance in the Oval Office.
A majority of Idaho residents (67%) said that the cost of buying or renting a home in their area is a big problem in terms of affordability. Twenty-three percent consider housing affordability to be a ‘medium’ problem, while 7% consider it a ‘slight’ problem. Just 3% of residents think housing affordability is not a problem at all.
“Millenial and Gen X residents are the most concerned about housing affordability, with 82% of respondents ages 30 to 39 calling it a big problem, and 76% of those between 40-49 who say the same,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Gen Z respondents are predictably much less concerned about the cost of buying or renting a home, with 46% of those ages 18 to 24 saying it’s a big problem, along with those over 70, at 54%.”
In a hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, 55% would support Trump, while 26% would support Biden, 17% would support someone else, and 4% are undecided.
Trump and Biden supporters in Idaho were asked if there is anything their preferred candidate could say or do in the next several months that would cause them to not support them in 2024. A plurality of Trump supporters (46%) say there is nothing the former President could do or say that would cause them to choose not to support him in 2024, while 22% say it was possible they could change their mind. Among Biden supporters, a similar plurality (40%) say there is nothing the President could do or say that would cause them to not support him in 2024, while 21% say it is possible they could change their mind.
When it comes to the 2016 election, a majority (65%) of Idaho residents think Donald Trump won the election fair and square, while 17% believe the former President stole the election. Voters are more split on the 2020 election; 47% believe President Biden stole the election, while 38% believe he won fair and square.
Midwest Study: The Idaho general election survey is part of a 22-state study on the Midwest region and surrounding states. States that have been released as of October 11 include Kentucky, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Additional states will be released over the next couple of weeks, along with the study results by the Middle West Review that is researching perceptions of the Midwest region.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Idaho poll was conducted October 1-4, 2023. The general election sample consisted of 490 registered voters, with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, party, race, and education based on the general population using a sample of n=506 participants and allowing the natural fallout to create the sample of n=490. Turnout modeling is based on US Census parameters, and Idaho voter registration and voter turnout data by regions (ID SOS). Data was collected by contacting a list of landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling, and questions included in this release are all sponsored by Emerson College. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found here.
