An Emerson College Polling survey of Nebraska voters finds President Trump with a 16-point lead over Joe Biden in a 2024 hypothetical presidential matchup: 47% support Trump, while 31% support Biden. Twelve percent support someone else and 11% are undecided.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said, “In the past week of polling several Midwest states and those that surround them, Trump has generally been exceeding his 2020 support; however, in Nebraska that is not the case. His 2020 lead is cut slightly to 16 points, perhaps driven by independent voters, among whom he trails Biden 34% to 35%.”
He continued, “While this data suggests Biden remains competitive for the second congressional district electoral vote, 56% of independent voters disapprove of the president, suggesting a potential ceiling among these key voters.”
Governor Jim Pillen holds a split approval among the Cornhuskers: 26% approve and disapprove of the first-year Governor respectively. A plurality of voters (48%) are neutral. President Joe Biden holds a 21% approval among Nebraska residents, while 62% disapprove of the job he is doing as president.
“Biden’s approval increases as educational attainment increases: from 9% of those whose highest degree is high school, to its highest of 41% among those with a postgraduate degree. Similarly, Pillen’s approval is highest among postgraduates, at 43%.”
Regarding the 2016 Presidential election, 60% of Nebraska residents think Trump won fair and square, while 17% think he stole the election; 23% are unsure. Regarding 2020, a plurality of residents (45%) think President Biden won fair and square, while a third (33%) think Biden stole the election; 22% are unsure.
Political affiliation in Nebraska influences how people view the validity of results of the 2016 and 2020 elections. Eighty percent of Republicans think Trump won fair and square in 2020, while a plurality of Democrats (46%) say the same. Eighty-three percent of Democrats think Biden won in 2020 fair and square, compared to 25% of Republicans who agree. Over half of Republicans, 54%, think Biden stole the election. A plurality of independents think 2016 and 2020 were won fairly, 48% in 2016, and 46% in 2020.
A majority of Nebraska residents (56%) prefer a car that uses ethanol fuel compared to 21% who prefer a car that uses an electric battery. Twenty-three percent of residents prefer neither.
“Democrats are most favorable of electric battery vehicles, 35% of whom prefer them to ethanol fueled cars, compared to 33% of independents, and just 9% of Republicans,” Kimball noted. “Republicans are most likely to prefer a car that uses ethanol fuel at 66%, compared to 52% of Democrats and 46% of independents who say the same.”
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Nebraska poll was conducted October 1-4, 2023. The sample consisted of n=423 Nebraska voters with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points; the sample of Nebraska residents is n=467 with a credibility interval of +/- 4.5 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, race, and education based on the general population using a sample of n=467 participants and allowing the natural fallout to create the sample of n=423 voters. Turnout modeling is based on US Census parameters, and Nebraska voter registration and voter turnout data by regions (NE SOS). Data was collected by contacting a list of landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling, and questions included in this release are all sponsored by Emerson College. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found here.
