Gallego 36%, Lake 30%, Sinema 21%
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Arizona voters finds 46% support former President Donald Trump and 43% support President Joe Biden in a 2024 rematch, while 12% are undecided. With third-party candidates on the ballot, 43% support Trump, 37% Biden, 8% Robert Kennedy Jr., and 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively; 10% are undecided.
“Independent voters narrowly break for Biden, 40% to 38%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Another key group that carried Biden’s win in Arizona in 2020 was the female vote, who are split between Trump and Biden with 44% apiece.”
- Biden leads among voters under 30 (42%-36%), in their 60s (53%-45%), and those over 70 (48%-47%), but trails among voters in their 30s (42%-37%), 40s (51%-31%), 50s (53%-40%).
Biden’s age raises serious doubts in voting for him for 59% of Arizona voters, while 41% say it is not a serious consideration in their vote. Trump’s criminal indictments raise doubts in voting for him for 55% of voters, while 45% say it is not a serious consideration.
Other prominent Democrats trail Trump: Vice President Harris 40% to 48%, and California Governor Newsom 34% to 47%.
Immigration is the top issue facing Arizona for 31% of voters, followed by the economy (20%), housing affordability (11%), education (10%), abortion access (7%), healthcare (6%), threats to democracy (6%), and crime (5%).
- Concern for immigration is six points higher among male voters than women, 34% to 28%.
- Immigration is the top issue for 51% of Republicans. Democrats are more split: 22% economy, 15% education, 14% housing affordability 12% healthcare, 12% abortion access. Independents split between immigration (29%) and the economy (18%).
In a hypothetical U.S. Senate election between incumbent independent Krysten Sinema, Democrat Ruben Gallego, and Republican Kari Lake, 36% support Gallego, 30% Lake, and 21% Sinema. Thirteen percent are undecided. Between just Gallego and Lake, 46% support Gallego, 39% Lake, and 15% are undecided.
- Male voters narrowly break for Gallego over Lake, 44% to 42% in the head-to-head matchup, while women voters support Gallego over Lake by 11 points, 47% to 36%.
- In the three-way matchup, 38% of women support Gallego, 29% Lake, and 18% Sinema, while 34% of men support Gallego, 31% Lake, and 24% Sinema.
“With Sinema on the ballot, she splits the vote among independents with Gallego, 30% to 28%, with another 20% supporting Lake. However in a head-to-head between Gallego and Lake, independents break for the Democrat: 42% support Gallego, while 30% back Lake.”
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill Arizona survey was conducted February 16-19, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data (AZ S.O.S.).
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and a consumer list of emails (both provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found under “Full Results.”
