Plurality of voters think Trump should be sentenced to prison.
A new Emerson College Polling national survey of U.S. voters finds 46% of voters support former President Donald Trump and 45% support President Biden in the 2024 presidential election. Nine percent are undecided. Since last month, Trump’s support has stayed the same, while Biden’s support has increased one point. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, the race splits evenly; 50% support Biden and 50% support Trump.
Forty percent of voters say Trump’s criminal conviction of 34 felonies makes no impact on their vote this November — 33% say it makes them less likely to support the former president this November, and 27% more likely.
“Trump’s support in our polling remained the same before and after his conviction,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “A majority of Democrats say it makes them less likely to support Trump (51%) and a majority of Republicans (55%) say it makes them more likely to support Trump. A plurality of independents say it makes no impact (41%), while 38% are less likely to vote for Trump and 21% more likely.”
- 58% of undecided voters say the conviction does not impact their vote; 36% less likely, 6% more likely.
“Suburban voters break for Trump over Biden, 48% to 44%, with a gender divide: suburban men break for Trump 57% to 35% while suburban women break for Biden 53% to 38%,” Kimball said. “Biden edges out Trump among independent voters, 43% to 41%, with 17% undecided.”
Regarding Trump’s July sentencing, a plurality of voters (40%) think Trump should receive prison time for his criminal conviction, 25% think he should pay a fine, and 15% think he should receive probation. Twenty percent are unsure.
“Opinion on Trump’s sentence varies by party: 67% of Democrats think Trump should serve prison time, while 46% of Republicans think he should pay a fine; 42% of independents think he should serve prison time, 22% a fine, and 14% probation,” Kimball said.
A majority of voters (64%) say Hunter Biden’s trial has no impact on their vote in 2024, 12% say it makes them more likely to support Joe Biden, and 24% say it makes them less likely to vote for Biden. Voters were also asked one of the jury selection questions, if they believe Hunter Biden is being prosecuted because his father is President of the United States: 49% think he is not, 27% think he is, and 24% are unsure.
With third-party candidates included on the ballot test, Trump’s support decreased two points, from 46% to 44%, and Biden’s seven points, from 45% to 38%. Six percent support Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 1% support Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively. Nine percent are undecided.
President Biden holds a 37% job approval and 53% disapproval rating.
A majority of voters, 55%, disapprove of Biden’s handling of the nation’s immigration policy, while a quarter of voters (25%) approve. Regarding Biden’s recent executive order preventing migrants from seeking asylum at the border once the average number of daily encounters hits 2,500, 38% approve, 39% disapprove, and 23% are unsure.
The economy remains the most important issue for voters at 42%, a four-point increase from the Emerson May national poll. Immigration is the second most important issue to voters at 15%, followed by threats to democracy at 12%, housing affordability at 7%, crime at 6%, abortion access and healthcare at 5% respectively, and education at 4%.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted June 4-5, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) (provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College.
