Democratic US Senate Candidates Outperforming Biden
New Emerson College Polling/The Hill state polls find former President Donald Trump with a slight edge on President Joe Biden in Arizona (47% to 43%), Georgia (45% to 41%), Wisconsin (47% to 44%) Nevada (46% to 43%), Pennsylvania (47% to 45%), and Michigan (46% to 45%), while Biden splits with Trump in Minnesota (45% to 45%).
“In our first polling in several key swing states since Trump’s conviction last month, there has been little movement, with support for both Trump and Biden staying largely consistent since November,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Notably, results fall within the poll’s margin of error.”
“Independent voters break for Trump in all seven states – however, there has been some movement among these voters since April,” Kimball said. “In Arizona, Trump’s support among independents dropped five points, from 48% to 43%. In Michigan, Trump’s support dropped three, from 44% to 41%, and in Pennsylvania, Trump dropped eight points, from 49% to 41%. Biden lost support among independents in Georgia, by six points, 42% to 36% and Nevada, by five, 37% to 32%.”
While Biden trails Trump, the Democratic Senate candidate leads the Republican candidate in Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Democratic Senate candidates outperform Biden by two in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, three in Minnesota, and seven in Nevada.
AZ: Ruben Gallego (D) 45%, Kari Lake (R) 41%, 14% undecided
MN: Amy Klobuchar (D) 48%, Royce White (R) 37%, 11% undecided
MI: Elissa Slotkin (D) 43%, Mike Rogers (R) 39%, 18% undecided
NV: Jacky Rosen (D) 50%, Sam Brown (R) 38%, 13% undecided
PA: Bob Casey (D) 47%, David McCormick (R) 41%, 12% undecided
WI: Tammy Baldwin (D) 46%, Eric Hovde (R) 44%, 10% undecided
Biden State approval
- AZ: 36% approve, 54% disapprove, 10% neutral
- GA: 35% approve, 54% disapprove, 11% neutral
- MI: 39% approve, 52% disapprove, 10% neutral
- MN: 38% approve, 51% disapprove, 11% neutral
- NV: 38% approve, 54% disapprove, 9% neutral
- PA: 39% approve, 53% disapprove, 8% neutral
Gubernatorial State approval:
- AZ: Katie Hobbs (D) 36% approve, 43% disapprove, 22% neutral
- GA: Brian Kemp (R) 49% approve, 28% disapprove, 23% neutral
- MI: Gretchen Whitmer (D) 49% approve, 40% disapprove, 11% neutral
- MN: Tim Walz (D) 45% approve, 42% disapprove, 13% neutral
- NV: Joe Lombardo (R) 37% approve, 30% disapprove, 33% neutral
- PA: Josh Shapiro (D) 49% approve, 29% disapprove, 22% neutral
State Issues
Voters in Arizona and Nevada were asked if they would vote “yes” or “no” on a potential ballot measure to establish the constitutional right to abortion in their state. In Arizona, 56% would vote “yes,” 26% would vote “no,” and 18% are not sure yet. In Nevada, 58% would vote “yes,” 20% “no,” and 21% are not sure yet.
- Women in Arizona would vote “yes” 61% to 23%; men support the measure 50% to 29%.
- Women in Nevada support the measure 52% to 17%; men support 54% to 25%.
Regarding a ballot measure in Arizona that allowed for state and local police to arrest noncitizens who cross the border unlawfully, and allow state judges to order deportations, 55% would vote “yes,” 29% “no,” and 16% are not sure.
The most important issue for each state remains the economy: 27% in Arizona note it as their top issue, 45% in Georgia, 41% in Michigan, 34% in Minnesota, 35% in Nevada, 44% in Pennsylvania, and 42% in Wisconsin. Immigration closely follows the economy as a top concern in Arizona, at 26%.
Perceived impact of Trump conviction & Hunter Biden conviction
Voters were asked if Donald Trump’s criminal conviction of 34 felonies impacts their vote this November, or if it has no impact. A plurality in all states say it has no impact on their vote.
Voters were asked if Hunter Biden’s criminal conviction of three felonies impacts their vote for Biden this November, or if it has no impact. A majority of voters in each state said it has no impact on their vote.
Methodology
The sample for each state included n=1,000 registered voters. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and voter registration and turnout data. The credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, for the sample is +/- 3% in 19 of 20 cases in each state.
The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines (except for MN) via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. Data was collected between June 13-18, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
