Rep. Johnson, Sen. Thune, Gov. Rhoden Underwater Among South Dakota Voters
A new Emerson College Polling/KELOLAND survey of South Dakota finds 26% of voters support businessman Toby Doeden in the Republican Primary for Governor, while 23% support Rep. Dusty Johnson, and 19% support incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden. Fifteen percent are undecided.
“The poll indicates that if the election were held today, the South Dakota Republican primary for governor would head to a runoff as no candidate meets the 35% threshold to avoid it,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
“Since last month, Johnson’s support decreased five points, from 28% to 23%, while Doeden picked up eight points, from 18% to 26%. Rhoden picked up two, from 17% to 19%. Doeden performs strongest among older voters over 70, at 36%, an increase from 14% in March. Dusty Johnson maintains support of the youth vote: 38% of those under 40 support him, a four-point increase since March.”
President Donald Trump holds a 53% job approval rating among South Dakota voters, while 42% disapprove of the job he is doing in office. Governor Larry Rhoden holds a 26% job approval rating, while 39% disapprove of the job he is doing.
A majority disapprove of the job Senator John Thune is doing in office, at 54%, while 28% approve of Thune. Senator Mike Rounds’ approval is also underwater: 32% approve and 43% disapprove.
“Senator Thune’s approval is near even among Republicans in South Dakota, 39% approve of the Senator and 40% disapprove, while the group has a positive approval rating of Senator Rounds, who is up for re-election this November, 45% approve and 25% disapprove,” Kimball noted.
A majority of South Dakota voters (55%) disapprove of the job Dusty Johnson is doing as Congressman, while 25% approve.
Among Republicans, Rep. Johnson is ten points underwater: 45% disapprove and 35% approve.
About two in three South Dakota voters (67%) would oppose former Governor Kristi Noem running for office in South Dakota again, while 22% would support it and 11% are not sure.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/KELOLAND survey was conducted May 18-19, 2026. The overall sample of likely voters, n=875, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.2 percent. The sample of likely Republican Primary voters, n=432, has a credibility interval of +/- 4.7 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web, additional panel interviews were provided by PureSpectrum. The survey was hosted on QuestionPro. All respondents were recruited using customized links that prevent responses from anyone outside of the poll’s sample frame. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and full cross tabulations can be found below. The survey was sponsored by KELOLAND and conducted by Emerson College Polling.
