Democratic Statewide Candidates Lead Republican Candidates 

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state surveys find a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. Harris has a slight edge over Trump in Michigan (50% to 47%), Georgia (49% to 48%), and Nevada (49% to 48%). The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania (48% to 48%). In Wisconsin and North Carolina, Trump has a one-point edge over Harris (49% to 48%), and Trump leads by three in Arizona (50% to 47%).

“The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continues to be tight, within each state’s margin of error,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.

“Harris leads Trump among independents in each state, with the exception of Nevada, where Trump leads 50% to 44%. There is also a stark gender divide, similar to that of 2020. In six of the seven swing states, Harris leads Trump among women, however, in Arizona, Trump has a two-point edge on Harris among women voters, a group that broke for Biden by about three points in 2020.”

  • Independent voters
    • AZ: Harris 51%, Trump 45%
    • GA: Harris 54%, Trump 38%
    • MI: Harris 46%, Trump 43%
    • NC: Harris 48%, Trump 46%
    • NV: Trump 50%, Harris 44%
    • PA: Harris 48%, Trump 40%
    • WI: Harris 52%, Trump 43%
  • Voters under 30
    • AZ: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
    • GA: Harris 60%, Trump 35%
    • MI: Harris 62%, Trump 32%
    • NC: Harris 55%, Trump 39%
    • NV: Harris 70%, Trump 28%
    • PA: Harris 65%, Trump 35%
    • WI: Harris 54%, Trump 41%
  • Women voters
    • AZ: Trump 50%, Harris 48%
    • GA: Harris 54%, Trump 44%
    • MI: Harris 56%, Trump 41%
    • NC: Harris 53%, Trump 46%
    • NV: Harris 53%, Trump 44%
    • PA: Harris 54%, Trump 42%
    • WI: Harris 54%, Trump 43%
  • Male voters
    • AZ: Trump 52%, Harris 46%
    • GA: Trump 53%, Harris 43%
    • MI: Trump 54%, Harris 43%
    • NC: Trump 53%, Harris 43%
    • NV: Trump 52%, Harris 45%
    • PA: Trump 55%, Harris 41%
    • WI: Trump 55%, Harris 42%

Statewide Elections 

The Democratic candidate leads the Republican candidate on the Senate or gubernatorial ballot in Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

  • AZ Senate: Democrat Ruben Gallego 49%, Republican Kari Lake 42% 
  • MI Senate: Democrat Elissa Slotkin 47%, Republican Mike Rogers to 41%.
  • NV Senate: Democrat Jacky Rosen 50%, Republican Sam Brown 40%
  • NC Governor: Democrat Josh Stein 47%, Republican Mark Robinson 41%.
  • PA Senate: Democrat Senator Bob Casey 48%, Republican Dave McCormick 44%
  • WI Senate: Democrat Tammy Baldwin 49%, Republican Eric Hovde 48%.

Top issues

  • AZ: 31% economy, 26% immigration, 13% housing affordability
  • GA: 44% economy, 11% housing affordability, 10% threats to democracy
  • MI: 44% economy, 11% threats to democracy, 10% housing affordability
  • NC: 48% economy, 9% healthcare, 8% education
  • NV: 37% economy, 15% housing affordability, 13% immigration
  • PA: 51% economy, 11% threats to democracy, 8% immigration
  • WI: 46% economy, 13% threats to democracy, 7% housing affordability

Voters were asked if “Project 2025” makes them more or less likely to support Donald Trump, or if it has no impact. Overall, a plurality in all states say it makes no difference or they are not familiar. 

  • AZ: 13% more likely, 38% less likely, 37% no difference, 13% not familiar
    • Independents: 7% more likely, 41% less likely, 40% no difference, 11% not familiar
  • GA: 15% more likely, 37% less likely, 36% no difference, 13% not familiar
    • Independents: 12% more likely, 41% less likely, 37% no difference, 10% not familiar
  • MI: 15% more likely, 39% less likely, 34% no difference, 12% not familiar
    • Independents: 10% more likely, 39% less likely, 40% no difference, 11% not familiar 
  • NC: 17% more likely, 35% less likely, 37% no difference, 11% not familiar
    • Independents: 10% more likely, 42% less likely, 41% no difference, 7% not familiar
  • NV: 14% more likely, 39% less likely, 37% no difference, 10% not familiar
    • Independents: 12% more likely, 39% less likely, 41% no difference, 9% not familiar
  • PA: 14% more likely, 37% less likely, 37% no difference, 13% not familiar
    • Independents: 5% more likely, 45% less likely, 36% no difference, 15% not familiar
  • WI: 13% more likely, 38% less likely, 38% no difference, 11% not familiar
    • Independents: 5% more likely, 46% less likely, 39% no difference, 11% not familiar

Voters were asked if taxes on tips should be eliminated, or if tips should remain taxable.

  • AZ: 74% taxes on tips should be eliminated, 14% tips should remain taxable, 12% unsure
  • GA: 74% taxes on tips should be eliminated, 12% tips should remain taxable, 15% unsure
  • MI: 65% taxes on tips should be eliminated, 17% tips should remain taxable, 18% unsure
  • NC: 70% taxes on tips should be eliminated, 18% tips should remain taxable, 12% unsure
  • NV: 71% taxes on tips should be eliminated, 17% tips should remain taxable, 12% unsure
  • PA: 68% taxes on tips should be eliminated, 17% tips should remain taxable, 15% unsure
  • WI: 66% taxes on tips should be eliminated, 20% tips should remain taxable, 15% unsure

Voters were asked how they think President Biden will go down in history – as an outstanding president, above average, average, below average, or poor.

  • AZ: 19% outstanding president, 15% above average, 14% average, 13% below average, 39% poor
    • Independents: 18% outstanding, 16% above average, 13% average, 14% below average, 40% poor
  • GA: 20% outstanding, 16% above average, 14% average, 14% below average, 36% poor
    • Independents: 20% outstanding, 20% above average, 14% average, 13% below average, 34% poor
  • MI: 20% outstanding, 16% above average, 15% average, 13% below average, 36% poor
    • Independents: 18% outstanding, 19% above average, 15% average, 16% below average, 32% poor
  • NC: 18% outstanding, 16% above average, 18% average, 13% below average, 35% poor
    • Independents: 13% outstanding, 19% above average, 21% average, 13% below average, 34% poor
  • NV: 17% outstanding, 18% above average, 14% average, 12% below average, 39% poor
    • Independents: 11% outstanding, 18% above average, 15% average, 14% below average, 42% poor
  • PA: 17% outstanding, 18% above average, 15% average, 16% below average, 35% poor
    • Independents: 13% outstanding, 16% above average, 24% average, 20% below average, 26% poor
  • WI: 19% outstanding, 17% above average, 14% average, 14% below average, 36% poor
    • Independents: 15% outstanding, 24% above average, 16% average, 13% below average, 33% poor

Methodology

The sample size for Arizona is n=720 likely voters, with a credibility interval of +/-3.6%. The sample size for Georgia and Michigan is n=800 per state, with a credibility interval for each state of +/-3.4%. The sample size in Pennsylvania is n=950, with a credibility interval of +/-3.1%. The sample size for Nevada is n=1,168, with a credibility interval of +/-2.8%. The sample size for North Carolina is n=775, with a credibility interval of +-3.5%. The sample size for Wisconsin is n=850, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education (US Census), and voter registration (state secretary of state) and turnout data (exit polling). 

The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English. Data was collected between August 25-28, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.

FULL RESULTS