Pennsylvania Senate Election Remains Close
New Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania survey finds 48% of voters support former President Donald Trump and 48% support Vice President Kamala Harris for president in the Keystone State. Half of voters (50%) expect Harris to win, while 49% expect Trump to win.
The Pennsylvania US Senate election is also close: 47% support incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey, while 45% support Republican David McCormick; 8% are undecided.
“Casey leads among voters under 50, 53% to 37%, while McCormick leads the 50 and over vote: 51% to 43%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted. “Women break for Casey by 11 points, 52% to 41%, while men break for McCormick by eight points, 50% to 42%.”
Voters were asked which presidential candidate they thought would be better for their personal financial situation. A majority of voters (51%) think Trump is the better candidate, while 44% think Harris is the better candidate for their financial situation in Pennsylvania.
- Democrats think Harris is better for their personal finances, 86% to 10%, Republicans think Trump is better, 91% to 6%, and independents break for Trump, 50% to 38%
The top issue for voters is the economy (50%). Sixty-percent of voters feel their economic situation is worse today than it was five years ago, while 22% feel it is better, 18% say it is no different.
- A plurality of Democrats (39%) think their situation is better, 32% worse, and 29% no different. A majority of Republicans (84%) think it is worse, along with a majority of independents (65%).
On the issue of fracking, 50% trust Trump more to handle the issue, while 39% trust Harris more. Eleven percent trust neither candidate.
Governor Josh Shapiro holds a 47% approval rating, while 35% disapprove of the job he is doing as Governor. Thirty-five percent disapprove of Shapiro, and 18% are neutral.
President Biden holds a 38% job approval, while 54% disapprove of the job he is doing, and 8% are neutral.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/RealClear PA survey was conducted September 27-28, 2024. The sample of likely voters in Pennsylvania is n=1,000. The polls have a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/-3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text (phone list provided by Aristotle) and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. The Pennsylvania survey is funded by RealClear Pennsylvania.
