Democratic Statewide Candidates Hold Edge on GOP Candidates
New Emerson College Polling/The Hill surveys of key swing states finds a tight presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. In Arizona, 49% support Trump and 47% Harris. In Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, 49% support Trump and 48% Harris. In Michigan and Wisconsin, 49% support both candidates. In Nevada, 48% support Harris, 47% Trump.
Since the last round of Emerson/The Hill swing state polls three weeks ago, the race has shifted slightly: Harris lost a point in Arizona and North Carolina, gained a point in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and her support did not move in Michigan and Nevada. Trump lost a point in Georgia and Nevada, gained a point in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and did not move in Arizona or Wisconsin.
“Vice President Harris performs stronger than President Biden among Asian voters and young voters, but underperforms Biden’s 2020 support among independents and older voters,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Trump has held at 49% for several months in Emerson surveys in Wisconsin, raising questions about whether he has hit a ceiling there. With just under four weeks to go, the race remains too close to call in key swing states, all within the margin of error.”
“Voters in union households break for Harris by 10 points in Michigan (54% to 44%) and by 26 points in Wisconsin (62% to 36%),” Kimball added. “In Pennsylvania, they favor Trump 53% to 43%. Non-union households lean toward Trump in Michigan (50% to 48%) and Wisconsin (52% to 46%), but Harris leads slightly in Pennsylvania, 49% to 48%.
Gender gap on the ballot
Generally, female voters tend to support Harris while male voters support Trump, with the lone exception coming in Arizona, where Trump leads among both men and women.
- AZ: men break 49% to 47% for Trump, and women break 50% to 47% for Trump.
- GA: men break 56% to 42% for Trump, and women break 54% to 44% for Harris.
- MI: men break 55% to 43% for Trump, and women break 54% to 44% for Harris.
- NC: men break 55% to 42% for Trump, and women break 52% to 45% for Harris.
- NV: men break 52% to 43% for Trump, and women break 53% to 43% for Harris.
- PA: men break 56% to 42% for Trump, and women break 54% to 43% for Harris.
- WI: men break 54% to 45% for Trump, and women break 53% to 45% for Harris.
Favorabilities
The survey measured the favorability of Harris, Trump, and former president Barack Obama.
- Harris’ favorability is 52% in Georgia, 51% in Michigan and Wisconsin, 50% in North Carolina and Nevada, and 48% in Pennsylvania and Arizona.
- Trump’s favorability is at 52% in North Carolina, 50% in Pennsylvania, 49% in Arizona and Wisconsin, 48% in Georgia and Michigan, and 45% in Nevada
- Obama’s favorability is at 54% in Arizona, 55% in Pennsylvania, 56% in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin, and 57% in Michigan
Statewide Elections
In the statewide elections, the Democratic candidate maintains an edge over the Republican in swing states.
- In Arizona, Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake 50% to 43%.
- Since last month, Gallego’s support increased two points while Lake’s support held at 43%.
- In Michigan, 49% support Democrat Elissa Slotkin, while 44% support Republican Mike Rogers.
- Since last month, Slotkin and Rogers’ support increased by two points.
- In Nevada, 50% support incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen, while 42% support Republican Sam Brown.
- Since September, Rosen has gained two points while Brown gained a point.
- In North Carolina, 50% support Democrat Josh Stein, while 34% support Republican Mark Robinson.
- Since the September poll, Stein has gained two points while Robinson has lost six points.
- In Pennsylvania, 48% support incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey while 46% support Republican Dave McCormick.
- Since last month, Casey’s support increased one point and McCormick’s by four points.
- In Wisconsin, 50% support incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin, while 46% support Republican Eric Hovde.
- Since September, Baldwin’s support increased one point and Hovde held 46%.
Abortion on the ballot
In Arizona and Nevada, propositions will appear on the ballot to establish a constitutional amendment that would provide a right to abortion up until fetal viability. A majority of voters in Arizona (54%) plan to vote “yes” on Proposition 139, while 33% plan to vote against it, and 13% are undecided. Similarly in Nevada, 55% plan to vote to support Proposition 6, while 33% plan to vote “no”, and 13% are undecided.
Top issue
Economic concerns continue to be the top issue for voters in their state, except for Arizona, where immigration is the top issue for 30% of voters, followed by the economy at 24%.
- Arizona: 30% immigration, 24% economy, 11% threats to democracy, 10% housing affordability, 10% abortion access
- Georgia: 47% economy, 10% threats to democracy, 8% immigration, 8% housing affordability, 7% healthcare
- Michigan: 51% economy, 11% threats to democracy, d8% housing affordability, 7% healthcare
- Nevada: 36% economy, 15% housing affordability, 13% immigration, 11% threats to democracy
- North Carolina: 44% economy, 10% immigration, 9% housing affordability, 9% education
- Pennsylvania: 47% economy, 12% threats to democracy, 11% immigration, 7% healthcare
- Wisconsin: 43% economy, 11% threats to democracy, 9% abortion access, 9% immigration, 8% housing affordability
President Biden approval
- Arizona: 36% approve, 56% disapprove
- Georgia: 40% approve, 54% disapprove
- Michigan: 41% approve, 53% disapprove
- Nevada: 38% approve, 54% disapprove
- North Carolina: 40% approve, 53% disapprove
- Pennsylvania: 40% approve, 53% disapprove
- Wisconsin: 39% approve, 53% disapprove
Gubernatorial approval
- Arizona: Katie Hobbs (D) 38% approve, 41% disapprove
- Georgia: Brian Kemp (R) 55% approve, 25% disapprove
- Michigan: Gretchen Whitmer (D) 49% approve, 43% disapprove
- Nevada: Joe Lombardo (R) 37% approve, 29% disapprove
- North Carolina: Roy Cooper (D) 45% approve, 39% disapprove
- Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro (D) 48% approve, 35% disapprove
- Wisconsin: Tony Evers (D) 44% approve, 42% disapprove
METHODOLOGY
The sample size for Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is n=1,000 likely voters, with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, of +/-3%. The sample size for Michigan is n=950, with a credibility interval of +/-3.1%. The sample size in Nevada is n=900 with a credibility interval of +/-3.2%. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and voter registration/turnout data.
The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English. Data was collected between October 5-8, 2024.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.
