A new Emerson College Polling/KELOLAND survey of the Republican runoff election for Governor in South Dakota finds incumbent Larry Rhoden with a 30-point lead over businessman Toby Doeden, 62% to 32%, with 7% undecided. Accounting for whom undecided voters lean toward, Rhoden maintains a 30-point advantage, 65% to 35%. This will be the first runoff election for governor in South Dakota.
“Larry Rhoden appears to have picked up momentum after finishing behind Doeden in the June primary,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Voters who supported Dusty Johnson in the primary are nearly all breaking for Rhoden, driving his support, while Doeden has not picked up much support from groups other than those who already supported him last month.”
Those who supported Rep. Dusty Johnson in the primary break for Rhoden over Doeden, 95% to 5%. Majorities of Rhoden primary voters (96%) and Doeden primary voters (87%) stick with their candidate in the runoff election. Jon Hansen voters also support Rhoden over Doeden, 69% to 31%.
Majorities of all age groups support Rhoden, though Doeden’s support is highest among voters in their 40s and 50s, at 44%.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/KELOLAND South Dakota survey was conducted July 12-13, 2026. The sample of South Dakota likely Republican runoff voters, n=500, has a margin of error (MOE), of +/- 4.3 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web, and a probability-based panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies using MMS text-to-web. The survey was hosted on QuestionPro. All respondents were recruited using customized links that prevent responses from anyone outside of the poll’s sample frame. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below. The survey was sponsored by KELOLAND and conducted by Emerson College Polling.
