The first Emerson College Polling survey of Arizona’s general election finds Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly with 47% support for Senate, while 45% support Republican challenger Blake Masters. Five percent of voters are undecided and four percent plan to vote for someone else. Regardless of whom they are supporting, 53% of voters expect Kelly to win over Masters. 

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “A stark gender divide exists in the Arizona Senate Election; men break for Masters by a 10-point margin whereas women voters break for Kelly by 13. Additionally, Independent voters favor Kelly over Masters, 46% to 37%.”

In the gubernatorial election, Democratic nominee Katie Hobbs and Republican nominee Kari Lake are dead even, with 46% support each. Six percent are undecided and 2% plan to support someone else. A majority of voters (54%) expect Lake to win, while 46% expect Hobbs to win the election for Governor. 

Blake Masters, Mark Kelly, and Kari Lake all hold an overall 48% favorability, while 46% of Arizona voters view Katie Hobbs favorably. The intensity of favorability varies per candidate. Thirty-one percent have a very favorable view of Masters while 16% have a somewhat favorable view. Thirty-five percent have a very favorable view of Kelly while 12% have a somewhat favorable view. Similar to Kelly, 25% have a very favorable view of Lake while 13% have a somewhat favorable view. Twenty-seven percent have a very favorable view of Hobbs while 19% have a somewhat favorable view. 

Forty-nine percent have an unfavorable view of Kelly, 48% of Masters, 47% of Lake, and 43% of Hobbs. 

A majority of Arizona voters (53%) disapprove of President Biden, while 40% approve of the job he is doing as President. In a hypothetical 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, 44% of Arizona voters support Trump while 41% support Biden. Thirteen percent would vote for someone else and 2% are undecided.

Forty-percent (40%) of Arizona voters say the recent FBI search of Mar-a-Lago makes them more likely to support Trump in 2024. Among Republicans, 72% say it makes them more likely to support Trump, and 24% say it makes no difference. Independents are split: 38% say it makes no difference, 34% say it makes them more likely, and 28% say it makes them less likely to vote for Trump in 2024. 

The economy is the most important issue for voters in determining their vote in November at 36%, followed by abortion access (16%), immigration (16%), healthcare (11%), and crime (7%). 

“For those who say the economy is their determining issue this November, 63% support Masters and 66% support Lake. By contrast, 98% and 99% of those who say abortion access is the most important issue support Kelly and Hobbs,” Kimball noted. 

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The Emerson College Polling survey of Arizona voters was conducted September 6-7, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely general election voters, n=627, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.85 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, party affiliation, and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, a web survey via email, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.