Voters Favor “Moderates” in 2028 Matchups
The final Emerson College Polling national survey of 2025 finds President Trump with a 41% job approval rating and 50% job disapproval, generally consistent with the November national poll. The president’s approval and disapproval numbers have flipped since his inaugural survey, from 41% disapproving to 41% approving, and 49% approving to 50% disapproving.
Voters were asked a series of hypothetical 2028 matchups based on the description of candidates who are progressive Democrats, MAGA Republicans, moderate Democrats, and moderate Republicans.
“It is clear that a moderate candidate on both the Democratic and Republican side has appeal toward independent voters that a label of progressive or MAGA does not appeal to: the ‘moderate Democrat’ has a 17-point advantage over the MAGA Republican and the ‘moderate Republican’ has an 18-point advantage over the ‘progressive Democrat,’” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
Voters were asked to grade President Trump on a series of key issues. Voters are most satisfied with the President’s handling of immigration, 37% grading Trump’s handling an “A” and 10% a “B,” while 36% give the President a failing grade on immigration.
Voters’ favorability toward several figures in government and politics was measured: Vice President JD Vance has the highest name recognition at 46% favorable and 41% unfavorable, followed by Elon Musk, whose favorability is at 40%, while 46% have an unfavorable view of Musk.
On the generic 2026 congressional ballot, 44% support the Democratic candidate and 42% the Republican; 15% are undecided. Independents break for the Democratic candidate 40% to 32%, while 28% are undecided.
Voters were asked how much they have heard, seen, or read about the US bombing alleged “drug boats” in the Caribbean Sea: 59% have heard a lot, 30% a little, and 12% nothing at all. Of those who have heard at least a little, 45% think the strikes were justified, and 42% not justified; 13% are unsure.
A majority of Democrats (73%) and a plurality of independents (44%) think the strikes were not justified based on what they know, while 78% of Republicans think they were justified.
The economy is the top issue facing the country for 38%, followed by threats to democracy, healthcare, and immigration at 14% respectively. This is the highest concern shown for healthcare in 2025 Emerson College polls.
Voters were asked which of the following best describes how much fraud exists in government social programs: a great deal, some, not much, or none at all. Fifty-three percent think a great deal of fraud exists, 28% some, 15% not much, and 1% none at all. Four percent are unsure.
“Perception of government fraud varies by party: Republicans are most confident in a great deal of fraud at 73%, compared to Democrats who are more split at 30% a great deal, 35% some, and 27% not much. Independents generally reflect the average at 54% a great deal and 27% some fraud,” Kimball said.
Just over a quarter of voters (26%) have invested in, traded, or used a cryptocurrency, such as Bitcoin or Ether. Voters who have invested in or used a cryptocurrency increased seven points since this time last year, from 19% in December 2024 to 26% in December 2025.
“Men are more likely than women to have used cryptocurrencies; 33% of men have invested or used cryptocurrencies, up from 26% in 2024, compared to 19% of women, up from 14% in 2024,” Kimball noted.
A plurality of voters (42%) oppose data centers being built in or near their community, while 33% support it. A quarter (25%) are neutral.
“Those in the Midwest are most opposed to data centers being built in or near their community at 49%, followed by the West (44%), South (40%), and Northeast (34%),” Kimball noted.
Looking ahead, 52% of voters think 2026 will be better than 2025. Young voters are most optimistic: 69% of those under 30 think the coming year will be better than 2025.
Among voters who have an opinion (n=518) on the college football playoffs, 26% are rooting for Indiana, 17% Georgia, 16% Ohio State, and 7% Miami, Oregon, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech, respectively.
Just over half of voters (51%) said their favorite holiday is Christmas, followed by Thanksgiving at 15%, Independence Day and Halloween at 7% respectively, and Easter at 4%.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted December 14-15, 2025. The overall sample of US active registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting an online panel of voters provided by Commonwealth Opinions Panel using MMS text-to-web and email, with additional panel interviews provided by PureSpectrum. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below.
