Majority of Voters Oppose Six-Week Ban
Trump 51%, Biden 38%, 11% undecided
A new Emerson College Polling survey in Florida finds 42% of voters plan to vote yes on the November ballot measure that will provide a constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability, 32% are unsure, and 25% will vote no.
“Fifty-six percent of Democrats and 44% of independents plan to vote in favor of a constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Republicans are more split: 36% plan to vote no, 30% yes, and 34% are unsure.”
A majority of voters (57%) find the six-week abortion ban that will become state law next month is “too strict.” Fifteen percent think it is not strict enough, and 28% think it is about right. Regarding the current 15-week ban, 43% think it is too strict, 21% think it is not strict enough and 36% think it is about right.
Fifty-nine percent say they are more motivated to vote than in previous elections, 13% are less motivated than usual, and 28% feel about the same motivation as usual.
In a 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, 51% support Trump, 38% Biden, and 11% are undecided. With the candidate undecided voters lean toward allocated, Trump’s overall support increases to 56%, and Biden to 44%.
- Among Biden voters, 32% support him because they dislike Trump, 24% because they like Biden, 19% care about an issue, and 14% support their party’s candidate.
- Among Trump voters, 31% support him because they care about an issue, 28% because they like Trump, 16% because they dislike Biden, and 14% support their party’s candidate.
President Biden holds 36% job approval among Florida voters and 54% job disapproval. Governor Ron DeSantis has a 47% job approval and 42% disapproval rating.
In a hypothetical U.S. Senate matchup between incumbent Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, 45% support Scott, 38% Mucarsel-Powell, and 17% are undecided.
The economy is the most important issue among Florida voters at 27%, followed by housing affordability at 16%, immigration at 14%, abortion access at 10%, threats to democracy at 9%, healthcare at 9%, education at 6%, and crime at 5%. The percentage of voters who marked abortion access as their top issue is four points higher in Florida than in the most recent national poll (6%).
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Florida survey was conducted April 9-10, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data (FL SOS).
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web, Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel of voters provided by CINT.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College.
