DeSantis Job Approval at 50%; Redistricting Plan at 44% support
A new Emerson College Polling survey of the Florida gubernatorial primary finds Rep. Byron Donalds leading the Republican field with 46% support, Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins and James Fishback each receive 4%, and 39% of voters remain undecided. In a hypothetical ballot test that includes Casey DeSantis, Donalds leads with 44% support compared to 7% for DeSantis.
“Byron Donalds is the clear favorite among Republicans to succeed Governor DeSantis,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Donalds leads all age groups and holds majority support among voters over 60, at 54%.”
In the Democratic Primary for Governor, 21% support David Jolly, 10% Jerry Demings, and 53% are undecided.
Looking ahead to a hypothetical matchup for Governor between Republican Donalds and Democrat Jolly, 44% support Donalds, 39% Jolly, 2% would support someone else, and 15% are undecided. Between Jolly and DeSantis, voters are split: 40% support Jolly, 39% DeSantis, and 3% someone else, and 19% are undecided.
“Florida Hispanic voters are split between Donalds and Jolly: 42% support Donalds and 41% Jolly,” Kimball noted. “Men break for Donalds by 14 points, 49% to 35%, while women break for Jolly by three points, 43% to 40%.”
In the U.S. Senate election, Republican Senator Ashley Moody leads potential Democratic opponents, Alex Vindman, 46% to 38%, Mujica, 45% to 38%, and Angie Nixon, 47% to 36%.
The survey finds President Trump with a 46% job approval rating among Florida likely voters, while 47% disapprove of the job he is doing. Half of voters (50%) approve of the job Governor Ron DeSantis is doing, while 40% disapprove.
“President Trump holds a majority approval among Republicans (82%) and disapproval among Democrats (89%) as expected, but independent voters break against the president, 49% disapprove and 35% approve,” Kimball noted. “Governor DeSantis is just above water with independents; 43% approve, and 40% disapprove.”
Senator Scott’s approval rating is split: 40% approve and 40% disapprove. Appointed Senator Ashley Moody’s approval rating is at 36%, while 28% disapprove and 36% are neutral or have not heard of Moody.
The survey finds 56% of Florida likely voters think a mid-decade redraw of Florida Congressional districts is a bad idea, while 44% think redistricting is a good idea.
“Perception of potential redistricting is fairly split even within the parties: Republican voters think a redraw is a good idea at 57% and Democrats think it is a bad idea at 65%, similar to independent voters, who oppose 64% to 36%,” Kimball said.
A plurality of Florida voters (45%) feel they are worse off financially than a year ago, while 27% think they are better off, and 29% are about the same as a year ago.
- Sixty-three percent of Democrats and 52% of independents say they are worse off, while 38% of Republicans are better off, and 36% are about the same.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Florida survey was conducted March 29-31, 2026. The overall sample of likely voters, n=1,125, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 2.8 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web and email; a panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies using MMS text-to-web; and additional panel interviews provided by PureSpectrum. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below.
