The latest Emerson College Polling survey of the Georgia general election finds Senator Raphael Warnock trailing his Republican opponent, Herschel Walker by two points, 44% to 46%. Four percent plan to vote for someone else and 7% are undecided. Regardless of whom they support, 53% expect the incumbent Senator Warnock to win while 47% expect Walker to win. This reflects a tightening of the race since April, when the Emerson College poll had Walker ahead 49% to 45%.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Walker leads Warnock among rural voters 58% to 24% while Warnock leads Walker 66% to 25% among urban voters. In the suburbs, voters are breaking for Walker by a nine-point margin, 50% to 41%.”
In the gubernatorial 2018 re-match, 48% plan to support Governor Brian Kemp, 44% plan to support Stacey Abrams, 6% plan to vote for someone else, and 2% are undecided. The majority of Georgia voters (58%) expect Kemp to win whereas 42% expect Abrams to win.
Exactly half of Georgia voters have a very (27%) or somewhat (22%) favorable view of Herschel Walker, while 46% have a somewhat (8%) or very (38%) unfavorable view of Walker. Forty-seven percent have a very (41%) or somewhat (7%) favorable view of Senator Warnock, while 46% have a somewhat (6%) or very (40%) unfavorable view of Warnock.
Forty-seven percent of Georgia voters have a very (30%) or somewhat (16%) favorable view of Kemp while 49% have a somewhat (12%) or very (37%) unfavorable view of Kemp. Forty-five percent have a very (38%) or somewhat (7%) favorable view of Abrams while 50% have a somewhat (5%) or very (45%) unfavorable view of Abrams.
President Biden holds a 42% approval among very likely Georgia voters; 57% disapprove of the job the president is doing. In a hypothetical 2024 Presidential Election between President Biden and former President Trump, Trump leads Biden 51% to 46%.
Kimball said, “Younger voters, aged 18-34, are driving Trump’s performance in Georgia. This group, who voted for Biden over Trump in 2020 63% to 30%, have narrowed their support to 53% to 46%. Their support has receded while still supporting the Democratic candidates Warnock and Abrams at 63% each. This cohort of younger voters also have the lowest approval ratings of the President: 34% approve and 66% disapprove of Biden.”
Concerning the recent FBI search of Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate’s impact on hypothetical Trump support in 2024, 39% say it makes them more likely to support the former President, 30% say it makes them less likely to support Trump in 2024, and 31% say it makes no difference on their vote.
On the generic congressional ballot, 51% plan to vote for the Republican candidate while 46% plan to vote for the Democratic candidate on the ballot.
Thirty-six percent of voters see the economy as the most important issue facing Georgia, followed by abortion access at 20%, and crime at 15%. Issues to follow include healthcare (9%), immigration (7%), housing affordability (5%), and education (4%).
Kimball noted, “While the economy is the most important issue for both male and female voters, the second most important issue differs. Among women, abortion access is the most important concern for 28%, whereas among men, 19% say crime is the most important issue.”
The Emerson College Polling survey of Georgia voters was conducted August 28-29, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely general election voters, n=600, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, and a voter registration list of emails and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.
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