Collins Leads GOP Senate Primary; Lance Bottoms ahead in Democratic Governor Primary as Republicans’ Burt Jones and Rick Jackson run even
The first Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Georgia finds Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff with an edge over potential Republican opponents. Ossoff leads Rep. Buddy Carter 47% to 44%, with 9% undecided. Ossoff’s lead extends to five points against Rep. Mike Collins, 48% to 43% with 9% undecided. Ossoff leads Derek Dooley by eight points, 49% to 41%, with 10% undecided.
“Senator Jon Ossoff enters the 2026 election cycle just under 50% support, anchored by a strong base among independent voters, leading potential Republican opponents by an average of 16 points, along with voters under 50, leading by an average of 12 points, and women, leading by an average of 8 points,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
In the Republican Senate primary to face Ossoff, 30% support Rep. Mike Collins, 16% Rep. Buddy Carter, and 10% Derek Dooley. Forty percent are undecided.
“Collins has a plurality of support among voters over 50, at 33%, while 15% support Carter, and 7% Dooley,” Kimball noted. “Voters under 50 are more split: 24% support Collins, 18% support Carter, and 15% Dooley.”
Men also support Collins more decisively at 34%, compared to 26% of women.
In the Republican primary for Governor, 21% support Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, 20% Rick Jackson, 11% former Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, and 6% Chris Carr. Thirty-eight percent are undecided.
“Businessman Rick Jackson’s entry appears to have reshaped the race, drawing support from voters over 60 (35%) and independent affiliated primary voters (25%),” Kimball said. “Jones’ support is highest among men (27%), Republican-affiliated primary voters (22%); his support is consistent among age groups.”
Voters were asked if President Trump’s endorsement makes them more or less likely to vote for a candidate. Forty-seven percent of Republican primary voters say it makes them more likely, 42% say it has no impact on their vote, and 12% less likely.
- Voters who say Trump’s endorsement makes them more likely to support a candidate break for Collins at 35%, Carter 18%, and Dooley 14%.
- In the race for Governor, Jones takes 31% of those who say Trump’s endorsement makes them more likely to support a candidate, while Jackson receives 21%.
- Voters who say Trump’s endorsement makes them less likely to support a candidate break for Raffensperger at 46%.
In the Democratic primary for Governor, 35% support former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, 13% former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, and 7% former DeKalb County CEO Michael Thurmond. A plurality (39%) are undecided.
“Forty-eight percent of Black voters support Keisha Lance Bottoms, while white voters are split; 19% support Bottoms, 14% Duncan, 7% Esteves, and 7% Thurmond,” Kimball said.
President Trump holds a 42% job approval rating among Georgia likely voters, while 51% disapprove of the job he is doing. Governor Brian Kemp holds a 46% job approval rating and 25% disapproval. Thirty percent are neutral.
- White likely voters approve of the job Trump is doing by a 22-point margin, 58% to 36%, while Black voters disapprove by a 71-point margin, 81% to 10%.
- The Governor is 13 points underwater among Black voters (36% to 23%) while white voters approve of Kemp 58% to 18% (+40).
The top issue for Georgia likely voters is the economy (36%) followed by housing affordability (14%), healthcare (14%), threats to democracy (11%), crime (8%), and immigration (7%).
- Compared to the February national poll, Georgia voters are more concerned about the economy (36% to 30%), housing affordability (14% to 4%), and healthcare (14% to 6%), and less concerned about threats to democracy (11% to 30%) and immigration (7% to 16%).
Voters were asked whether they believe the FBI investigation into the Fulton County 2020 election results is a legitimate investigation or a political witch hunt. Overall, 44% view it as a political witch hunt, 40% think it is a legitimate investigation, and 16% are unsure.
- Views on the investigation break sharply along party lines: a majority of Republicans, 67%, say the investigation is legitimate, while a majority of Democrats (72%) believe it is a political witch hunt. Independents are split: 47% think the investigation is a witch hunt, while 29% view it as legitimate.
A plurality of Georgia voters (47%) oppose data centers being built in or near their community, while 31% support it. Opposition in Georgia is five points higher than the national level; an Emerson December 2025 national survey found 42% of voters opposed data centers and 33% support them.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Georgia survey was conducted February 28-March 2, 2026. The overall sample includes n=1,000 with a credibility interval of +/- 3 percent. The sample of likely Democratic Primary voters includes a sample size of n=464 with a credibility interval of +/- 4.5 percent. The sample of likely Republican primary voters includes a sample size of n=453 with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percent.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting an online panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies using MMS text-to-web, with additional panel interviews provided by PureSpectrum. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below.
