Gender Divide on Hypothetical 2024 Presidential Ballot
A new Emerson College Poll in Iowa finds Governor Kim Reynolds with a 32% approval among Iowa residents, while 39% disapprove of the job she is doing in office. Twenty-nine percent are neutral. President Biden’s approval is six points lower than Reynolds,’ holding a 26% approval among residents, and 52% disapproval. Twenty-two percent are neutral towards the president.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said, “Governor Reynolds holds a 55% approval rating within her own party, and 19% disapproval. Reynolds struggles with independent voters: a 40% plurality of whom disapprove of the job she is doing as governor, and just 22% approve.”
Former President Donald Trump holds a 10-point lead over President Biden in a potential 2024 presidential matchup, leading 44% to 34%. Twelve percent would vote for someone else, and 11% are undecided.
“As Trump’s lead in Iowa expands past his eight-point victory in 2020, male voters seem to be among those most supportive of the former president in 2024: he leads Biden by 23 points among men, 51% to 28%, whereas women split for Biden by three points: 39% support Biden and 36% support Trump,” Kimball said.
A majority of Donald Trump voters (57%) say they cannot think of anything that Joe Biden could do or say in the next several months that would make them choose not to support him for president in 2024, 41% of Biden voters say the same. Eighteen percent of Trump voters can think of something Trump could do or say to make them change their mind, compared to 19% of Biden voters who say the same.
Majorities of residents think the elections were won by Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 fair and square, 58% in 2016 and 53% in 2020, while 21% think Trump stole the 2016 election and 28% think Biden stole the 2020 election.
Residents were asked if they prefer a car that uses ethanol fuel, or a car that uses an electric battery, or neither. Fifty-six percent prefer a car that uses ethanol fuel, while 23% prefer an electric battery; 21% prefer neither. This reflects the same preferences of residents in Nebraska, where residents also prefer the car using ethanol fuel to an electric battery.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Iowa poll was conducted October 1-4, 2023. The sample consisted of 464 Iowa voters with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points; the sample of Iowa residents is n=501 with a credibility interval of 4.3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, race, party, and education based on the general population using a sample of n=501 participants and allowing the natural fallout to create the sample of n=464 voters. Turnout modeling is based on US Census parameters, and Iowa voter registration and voter turnout data by regions (IA SOS). Data was collected by contacting a list of landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling, and questions included in this release are all sponsored by Emerson College. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found here.
