The latest Emerson College Polling survey of Maine voters finds Democratic Governor Janet Mills with a 12-point lead in her re-election campaign against former Governor Republican Paul LePage, 53% to 41%. Regardless of whom they support, 59% expect Mills to be re-elected, while 41% expect LePage to win.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said, “There is a significant gender divide in the gubernatorial election. Men break for LePage over Mills by two points, 48% to 46%, whereas women break for Mills by 20 points, 57% to 37%.”
A majority of Maine voters (58%) have a favorable view of Mills, while 41% have an unfavorable view of the Governor. By contrast, a majority of Maine voters (53%) have an unfavorable view of LePage while 45% have a favorable view of the former Governor.
The economy is the most important issue to 39% of voters, followed by threats to democracy (19%), and abortion access (16%).
“Concern over the economy drives LePage’s support; 69% of those who say the economy is their top issue are voting for LePage. Nearly all, 98%, of those who say abortion is their top issue are voting for Mills and 78% who say threats to democracy are the top issue are voting for Mills,” Kimball noted.
Regarding the recent addition of lobsters to the Seafood Watch’s “red list” of unsustainable seafoods to avoid, 64% are concerned (44% “very concerned” and 20% somewhat), while 8% are a little bit concerned, and 14% are not concerned at all. Fifteen percent have never heard of this.
In the 2022 Midterm Election generic ballot, 50% plan to vote for the Democratic candidate while 42% plan to vote for the Republican candidate.
In a hypothetical 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, Biden leads 51% to 40%. The FBI search of Mar-a-Lago makes a third of Maine voters (33%) less likely to vote for Trump in 2024, 28% more likely, and has no difference on the plurality of voters (39%).
The Emerson College Polling Maine poll was conducted September 19-20, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,164, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 2.79 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, region, party affiliation, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, cell phones via SMS-to-web, and web survey via email.
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