A new Emerson College Polling/DC News Now/The Hill poll finds 49% of Maryland likely voters support Democratic Senate candidate Angela Alsobrooks, while 42% support former Republican Governor Larry Hogan for the open U.S. Senate seat. Nine percent are undecided. In the last Emerson Maryland poll in May, Alsobrooks led Hogan 48% to 38% with 14% undecided among registered voters.
“Fifteen percent of Harris voters plan to split their ticket and vote for Larry Hogan for Senate,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “In most Emerson state polling, the ticket-splitting has benefited the Democratic statewide candidate — in Maryland, it benefits the Republican. Still, the former Governor trails Alsobrooks, fueled by her lead among both voters under 40 (+14) and over 60 (+11), her 18-point lead among women, and a 63-point lead among Black voters in Maryland.”
In the presidential election, 63% support Vice President Kamala Harris and 32% support former President Donald Trump. Four percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Harris’ support increased to 65% and Trump to 33%.
“Despite Harris’s large lead, the data reveals a significant gender gap: females support her 69% to 26%, while males back her 56% to 39%, showing a 26-point difference,” Kimball said.
Maryland Governor Wes Moore holds a 53% approval rating, while 26% disapprove of his job as Governor. President Joe Biden has a 48% job approval, while 41% of Maryland voters disapprove of the job he is doing in the Oval Office.
Forty-two percent of likely voters in Maryland think the state is headed in the right direction, while 37% think the state is on the wrong track.
“Among voters who think the state is headed in the right direction, 78% support Alsobrooks and 16% support Hogan,” Kimball noted. “Of those who think the state is on the wrong track, 75% support Hogan and 17% support Alsobrooks.”
The economy is the top issue for 40% of voters, followed by crime (14%), housing affordability (14%), threats to democracy (8%), education (8%), immigration (5%), healthcare (5%), and abortion access (3%).
“Voters prioritizing the economy support Harris 49% to 46%, while those focused on housing affordability back her 88% to 10%,” Kimball said. “Only voters who consider immigration the top issue favor Trump, with a split of 80% to 14%.”
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Maryland survey was conducted September 12-13, 2024. The sample of likely voters, n=890, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling, and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text (phone list provided by Aristotle) and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Nexstar Media.
