The first Emerson College Polling survey following the September primary election finds Democratic nominee and Attorney General Maura Healey with an 18-point lead over Republican nominee and State Representative Geoff Diehl in the November gubernatorial election, leading Diehl 52% to 34%. Twelve percent are undecided.
“Healey holds a double-digit lead among all age groups other than those between 50 and 64,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said. Kimball continued, “Among this demographic, 44% plan to vote Healey and 42% support Diehl, whereas Healey holds a 21-point lead among voters between 35 and 49 and over 65, and a 40-point lead among voters under 35.”
A majority of Massachusetts voters (55%) view Maura Healey very (32%) or somewhat (23%) favorably, whereas 34% view Diehl very (17%) or somewhat (17%) favorably. By contrast, 34% hold a somewhat (9%) or very (26%) unfavorable view of Healey and 37% hold a somewhat (9%) or very (29%) unfavorable view of Diehl. Three percent (3%) of voters have never heard of Healey, while 11% have never heard of Diehl.
President Joe Biden holds a 54% approval in the Commonwealth; 40% disapprove of the job he is doing as President This contrasts Biden’s nationwide approval, 51% disapprove and 42% approve. In a hypothetical 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, Biden leads 54% to 34%. Ten percent would support someone else.
The plurality of Massachusetts voters (42%) say the recent FBI search of Mar-a-Lago makes them less likely to support Trump in 2024. Among Republicans, 58% say it marks them more likely to support Trump, and 28% say it makes no difference. Independents are split: 35% say it makes them less likely, 33% say it makes no difference, and 32% say it makes them more likely to vote for Trump in 2024.
The economy is the most important issue for 41% of Massachusetts voters, followed by abortion access (16%) and healthcare (12%).
“Abortion access is about twice as more important of an issue determining ones vote this November for female voters than male voters, 21% to 10%,” Kimball noted.
The Emerson College Polling survey of Massachusetts voters was conducted September 7-8, 2022. The sample consisted of somewhat and very likely general election voters, n=708, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.6 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an online panel, email, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.