Majority Oppose US Intervention in Cuba
A new Emerson College Polling survey finds President Donald Trump with a 39% job approval rating, while 55% disapprove of the job he is doing in the Oval Office. The President’s approval is relatively steady since last month, a one-point decrease in approval and disapproval, respectively.
Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are the top contenders for the 2028 Republican nomination: 36% support Vance, 35% Rubio, while 5% support Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, respectively. Fifteen percent are undecided.
“The Republican primary has shifted significantly since February, when 52% supported Vance and 20% Rubio; the potential 2028 contenders now compete evenly,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Rubio has found support among Republican Primary voters over 50, who support him by a six-point margin over Vance, 41% to 35%, while Vance leads the younger Republican vote under 50, 37% to 26%.”
Former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg leads the Democratic primary with 18%, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16%, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11%, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro at 10%, former Vice President Kamala Harris at 10%, and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear at 9%. Eighteen percent are undecided.
Since February 2026, Buttigieg’s support increased two points, from 16% to 18%, Newsom’s support decreased four points, from 20% to 16%, Ocasio-Cortez’s support increased two points, from 9% to 11%, Shapiro’s support increased from 7% to 10%, and Beshear’s support increased from 5% to 9%. Harris’ support decreased from 13% to 10%.
On the generic midterm congressional ballot, Democrats have a nine-point advantage, leading the generic Republican 50% to 41%, while 9% are undecided.
A majority of voters think the Democratic Party (58%) and Republican Party (59%) are on the wrong track rather than headed in the right direction.
- 67% of Democrats think the Democratic Party is headed in the right direction, while 76% of Republicans and 64% of independents think they are on the wrong track.
- 78% of Republicans think their party is headed in the right direction, while 87% of Democrats and 68% of independents think their party is on the wrong track.
Voters oppose the United States launching military intervention in Cuba this year, 57% to 23%, while 20% are not sure.
“Hispanic voters oppose military intervention in Cuba by a 16-point margin, 50% to 34%,” Kimball noted. “A majority of white voters also oppose, 55% to 23%, along with Black voters, 67% to 20%.”
The top issue for voters is the economy at 41%, the highest of the calendar year. Concern for threats to democracy increased four points since April, from 15% to 19%. Concern for immigration continues to decrease, at 11%, the lowest of the year.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted May 24-25, 2026. The overall sample of US likely voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percent. The sample of likely Democratic Primary voters, n=432, has a credibility interval of +/- 4.7 percent. The sample of likely Republican Primary voters, n=432, has a credibility interval of +/- 4.7 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web, additional panel interviews were provided by PureSpectrum. The survey was hosted on QuestionPro. All respondents were recruited using customized links that prevent responses from anyone outside of the poll’s sample frame. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below.
