The final Emerson College Polling survey of Michigan voters ahead of the Midterm Elections finds Governor Gretchen Whitmer with a five-point lead over her Republican opponent Tudor Dixon, 50% to 45%. Three percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, each candidate gains one point, 51% to 46%. Since September, Whitmer has maintained a five-point lead over Tudor Dixon. A majority of voters (58%) expect Governor Whitmer to be re-elected, while 42% expect Tudor Dixon to win, regardless of whom they support.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Independent voters break for Whitmer by a two-point margin, 48% to 46%. In addition, men break for Tudor Dixon by eight points, whereas women voters break for the Governor by a 15-point margin.”
Governor Whitmer is viewed favorably by 54% of voters, while 45% have an unfavorable view of her. Tudor Dixon is viewed favorably by 48% of voters, while 46% have an unfavorable view of her.
Eighty-six percent of voters have heard, read, or seen a lot (50%) or a little (36%) about the gubernatorial debate between Whitmer and Dixon. Fifteen percent are not familiar. Voters were asked if the debate improved or worsened the opinion of the candidates. Forty-one percent of voters say the debate improved their opinion of Tudor Dixon, compared to 32% who say the same for Whitmer. Thirty-four percent say the debate worsened their opinion of Dixon, while 33% say it worsened their opinion of Whitmer. A quarter of voters (25%) say the debate made no difference on their opinion of Dixon, while 35% say the debate made no impact on their view of Whitmer.
Kimball noted, “For voters who have heard, seen, or read a lot about the debate, Dixon only trails Whitmer by two points. Whitmer’s lead expands to six points among those who have heard a little about the debate, and 13 points among those who did not tune in.”
A slight majority (51%) of voters plan to vote yes on Michigan Proposal 3, which would amend the State Constitution to establish the individual right to abortion. Forty-two percent plan to vote no, and 7% are unsure.
Kimball noted, “‘Yes’ voters on Proposal 3 break for Whitmer over Dixon 86% to 11%. If voters turnout to vote yes on this proposal, it could lead to wider support for Whitmer.”
The economy is the top issue for 41% of voters, followed by abortion access (20%), “threats to democracy” (13%), healthcare (8%), and crime (7%).
The Emerson College Polling survey of Michigan voters was conducted October 28-31, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=900 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, party affiliation and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, an online panel, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.
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