The final Emerson College Polling survey of Republican primary voters finds Tudor Dixon with a plurality of support (41%), a double-digit lead over her competitors Kevin Rinke (17%), Garrett Soldano (12%) and Ryan Kelley (12%); 9% are undecided. When undecided voters indicate which candidate they lean towards, Dixon expands her support to 44%. Half of the data was from before Donald Trump endorsed Tudor Dixon on Friday, July 29, and half was from after.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Trump’s endorsement solidified Dixon’s status as the front-runner in the Republican primary and appears to have hurt the Rinke campaign the most. We saw an 8-point drop in Rinke’s polling number pre and post-endorsement, from 21% to 13%. Dixon saw her numbers increase 13 points–from 35% to 48%–including a shift of undecided in her direction by about 5 points.”
Dixon’s lead is reflective of voters’ perception of the Trump endorsement: 56% of Michigan Republican primary voters say they are more likely to support a candidate if Trump endorses them, 11% say it makes them less likely, and 33% say it makes no difference on their vote.
The economy is the most important issue for a super majority of68% of Michigan Republican voters.
Tudor Dixon is the most favorable candidate among GOP primary voters: 65% have a very (37%) or somewhat (27%) favorable view of Dixon, while 20% view her somewhat (7%) or very (13%) unfavorably. Eleven percent are unsure and 4% have never heard of Dixon.
Rinke also holds a net favorability: 57% have a very (24%) or somewhat (33%) favorable view of him while 23% have a somewhat (14%) or very (8%) unfavorable view of Rinke. Seventeen percent are unsure and 4% have never heard of Rinke.
Garrett Soldano has a very (21%) or somewhat (26%) favorable view among 47% of voters, while 21% have a somewhat (12%) or very (9%) unfavorable view of him. Twenty-two percent are unsure and 10% have never heard of Soldano.
A majority of voters (52%) have a favorable view of Ryan Kelley, while 22% have a somewhat (9%) or very (13%) unfavorable view of Kelley. Twenty percent are unsure and 7% never heard of him.
Twenty-four percent of votes have a very (5%) or somewhat (19%) favorable view of Ralph Rebandt, while 31% have a somewhat (22%) or very (8%) unfavorable view of Rebandt. A plurality of voters (27%) are unsure, and 18% have never heard of Rebandt.
Caller ID
The Emerson College Polling Michigan survey of very likely Republican voters was conducted July 28-30, 2022. The Republican primary sample consisted of very likely Republican primary voters, n=869, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, region, race/ethnicity and mode based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.
