U.S. Senate: Slotkin (D) 41%, Rogers (R) 39%
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey in Michigan finds 45% of voters support former President Donald Trump and 44% support President Joe Biden in a 2024 presidential election. Eleven percent are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Trump and Biden’s support increases to 50% each.
“Among Michigan independent voters, 40% support Trump, 35% Biden, and 26% are undecided. When these independent undecided voters are pushed, their overall ballot test is split: 51% support Trump and 49% Biden,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
“While 35% of voters express interest in a third-party candidate, only 7% ultimately opt for one when given additional choices,” Kimball added.
- Sixty-five percent of voters are satisfied with the choices on the ballot being Donald Trump and Joe Biden, while 35% would also want to see a third-party candidate on the ballot.
- With third-party candidates on the ballot, 43% support Trump, 41% Biden, 5% Kennedy, and 1% Cornel West and Jill Stein respectively. Ten percent are undecided.
Fifty-one percent think after what happened on January 6, 2021, Donald Trump does not deserve another chance to run for president, while 49% think he does.
- 58% of women think he does not deserve another chance, compared to 58% of men who think Trump deserves another chance to run after January 6, 2021.
Biden holds 39% job approval among Michigan voters, 52% job disapproval, and 9% are neutral. Governor Gretchen Whitmer holds 49% job approval, and 42% disapproval; 10% are neutral. In a hypothetical presidential election between Whitmer and Donald Trump, 50% would support Whitmer, 45% Trump, and 6% are undecided.
In a hypothetical U.S. Senate election between Democrat Elissa Slotkin and Republican Mike Rogers, 41% support Slotkin, 39% Rogers, and 20% are undecided.
In a hypothetical matchup between Slotkin and Republican Sandy Pensler, 42% support Slotkin, 37% Pensler, and 21% are undecided.
Between Republican Peter Meijer and Slotkin, 42% support Slotkin, 34% Meijer, and 24% are undecided.
In a matchup between Republican Justin Amash and Slotkin, 43% support Slotkin, 35% Amash, and 22% are undecided.
The economy is the top issue for Michigan voters at 38%, followed by immigration (11%), threats to democracy (10%), healthcare (10%), housing affordability (9%), education (7%), and abortion access (6%).
Support for 2024 presidential candidate by top issue:
- Economy: 60% support Trump, 30% Biden
- Immigration: 84% Trump, 11% Biden
- Threats to democracy: 70% Biden, 26% Trump
- Healthcare: 61% Biden, 22% Trump
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill Michigan survey was conducted March 14-18, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data (MI S.O.S.).
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, a consumer list of emails (both by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found under “Full Results.”
