The latest Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Missouri voters finds nearly half (49%) of voters support Republican Eric Schmitt in the race to replace retiring Senator Roy Blunt, while 38% support Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine. Over two-thirds of voters (67%) expect Eric Schmitt to win this November, while 34% expect Busch Valentine to be the next Missouri Senator. 

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said, “A plurality of voters under 50 support Valentine for Senate; however, a majority of voters over 50 support Schmitt. Not only is he winning a higher share of these older voters, but they make up over 60% of the estimated electorate.”

A majority of voters (52%) have a favorable opinion of Eric Schmitt, while 37% have a negative opinion of Schmitt. Nine percent are unsure of their opinion of Schmitt and 2% have never heard of him. Forty-one percent of voters have a favorable view of Busch Valentine, while 35% have a negative opinion. Fourteen percent are unsure, and 10% have never heard of Busch Valentine. 

President Biden has a 58% disapproval among Missouri voters, while 37% approve of the job he is doing as president. 

In a hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, 51% would support Trump, 37% would support Biden, 7% someone else, and 5% are undecided. A plurality of voters (41%) say the recent FBI search of Mar-a-Lago makes them more likely to support Trump if he runs for election in 2024, while 30% say it makes them less likely, and 28% say it makes no difference on their vote.

The economy is the most important issue in determining the support of 45% of Missouri’s voters, followed by threats to democracy (15%), abortion access (13%), healthcare (8%), and immigration (8%).

Kimball noted, “Schmitt’s support is driven by voters who say the economy is the top issue; these voters break for Schmitt 71% to 18%. By contrast, those who say threats to democracy is their top issue break for Busch Valentine 68% to 22%, and those who said abortion access break for Busch Valentine 79% to 5%.”

A plurality of voters (48%) support Missouri Amendment 3, which would amend the Missouri Constitution to allow the purchase, possession, use, and sale of marijuana for personal use for adults over the age of 21. Thirty-five percent oppose the measure and 17% are unsure. 

Forty-three percent of Missouri voters think sports betting should be legal in the state, while 31% think it should not be, and 26% are unsure. 

“Support for legal sports betting is 20 points higher among men than among women, 53% to 33%. Thirty-four percent of women oppose legal sports betting should not be legal, compared to 28% of men,” Kimball noted. 

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill Missouri poll was conducted September 23-27, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,160, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 2.8 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, region, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using cell phones via SMS-to-web, web survey via email, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel.

INTERACTIVE REPORT