68% of Residents Consider Themselves Kansas City Chiefs Fans
A new Emerson College Polling survey of Missouri voters finds incumbent Republican Senator Josh Hawley with 13 and 10-point leads over potential Democratic opponents Marine Veteran Lucas Kunce and Attorney Welsey Bell. In a matchup between Hawley and Kunce, 45% support Hawley, 32% support Kunce, 5% would vote for someone else, and 17% are undecided. In a matchup between Hawley and Bell, 44% support Hawley, 34% support Bell, 5% support someone else and 17% are undecided.
“Male voters in Missouri break for Hawley against Kunce and Bell by 23 and 20-point margins, whereas women voters are more split,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Women break for Hawley over Kunce by four points, 39% to 35%, and just one point over Bell, 40% to 39%”
Governor Mike Parsons holds a 36% job approval among Missouri residents, while 28% disapprove of the job he is doing in office. Thirty-six percent are neutral towards the governor. President Joe Biden holds a 29% job approval, while 57% disapprove of the job he is doing as president. Fourteen percent are neutral.
In a potential Presidential Election between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Trump leads by 17 points, 50% to 33%. Nine percent would vote for someone else, and 8% are undecided.
Majorities of both Trump and Biden voters say there is nothing their candidate could say or do in the next several months that would make them change their minds and vote for someone else, including 57% of Trump voters and 59% of Biden voters. Fourteen percent of Trump voters can think of something that might make them change their mind, and 12% of Biden supporters say the same.
Missouri residents are split regarding if the 2020 election was stolen or won ‘fair and square’ by President Biden: 44% think Biden won fairly, while 41% think he stole the election. This compares to a majority of residents (63%) who think Trump won the 2016 election fair and square, while 20% think he stole the election.
“Seventy-four percent of voters who say they will vote for Trump in 2024 think the 2020 election was stolen by Joe Biden,” Kimball noted. “Just 10% of these voters think it was won fairly by Biden in 2020, and 89% of 2024 Trump voters think Trump won fair and square in 2016.”
Sixty-eight percent of Missouri residents consider themselves to be fans of the Kansas City Chiefs, while 32% are not. This compares to 71% of Kansas state residents who consider themselves fans of the Chiefs – a difference within the poll’s margin of error.
Midwest Study: The Missouri general election survey is part of a 22-state study on the Midwest region and surrounding states. States that have been released as of October 12 include Kentucky, Oklahoma, Idaho, Ohio, Wisconsin, Kansas, and Pennsylvania. Additional states will be released over the next couple of weeks, along with the study results by the Middle West Review that is researching perceptions of the Midwest region.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling Missouri poll was conducted October 1-4, 2023. The sample consisted of 491 Missouri voters with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points; the sample of Missouri residents is n=526 with a credibility interval of n=4.2 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, race, and education based on the general population using a sample of n=526 participants and allowing the natural fallout to create the sample of n=491 voters. Turnout modeling is based on US Census parameters, and Missouri voter registration and voter turnout data by regions (MO SOS). Data was collected by contacting a list of landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling, and questions included in this release are all sponsored by Emerson College. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found here.
