The first Emerson College/WHDH New Hampshire General Election poll finds incumbent Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan with an 11-point lead over newly-nominated Republican Donald Bolduc, leading 51% to 40%. Six percent (6%) of voters are undecided, and 4% plan to support someone else. Regardless of whom they support on the ballot, voters expect Hassan to win over Bolduc, 60% to 40%.
“Independent voters break for Hassan by a 12-point margin,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling continued, “Both men and women support Hassan over Bolduc; however, women support the Senator by a 16-point margin and men by six.”
Hassan’s favorability is ten points higher than Bolduc: 51% have a favorable view of Hassan while 41% have a favorable view of Bolduc. Forty-four percent (44%) have an unfavorable view of Hassan, and 39% of Bolduc. Twenty-percent of New Hampshire voters have never heard of or are unsure of Bolduc.
Kimball said, “Bolduc has low name recognition, which presents both a challenge and an opportunity. Among undecided voters, 60% are unsure of their perceptions of Bolduc, compared to 27% who say the same of Hassan.”
In the gubernatorial election, Republican Governor Chris Sununu leads Democratic nominee Tom Sherman by 15 points, 52% to 37%. For undecided gubernatorial voters, abortion access is their most important issue (39%), followed by the economy (17%).
In the first congressional district, 47% of voters plan to support incumbent Democrat Chris Pappas, while 42% support Republican nominee Karoline Leavitt. Five percent of voters plan to vote for someone else and 6% are undecided.
In the second congressional district, a majority of voters (54%) support incumbent Democrat Ann Kuster, while 36% support Republican nominee Robert Burns; six percent (6%) plan to vote for someone else and 5% are undecided.
In a hypothetical 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, 46% would vote for Joe Biden while 43% would support Donald Trump, 8% are undecided.
The economy is the most important issue for 43% of New Hampshire voters in determining their November vote, followed by abortion access at 20%.
“Among voters who say the economy is the most important issue, 62% support Bolduc and 27% support Hassan. Voters who say abortion access is the most important issue break for Hassan over Bolduc 93% to 2%.”
The Emerson College Polling New Hampshire poll was conducted September 14-15, 2022. The sample consisted of somewhat and very likely voters, n=800, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, web survey via email, and an online panel.