Majority Feel Their Family Income is Falling Behind Cost of Living
The first Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll of the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election finds a majority of Democrats (56%) and a plurality of Republicans (47%) undecided with six months until the primary elections. In the Democratic Primary, 10% support Rep. Mikie Sherrill, 8% New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, 8% Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, 7% Rep. Josh Gottheimer, and 7% former State Senate President Stephen Sweeney. In the Republican Primary, 26% support Jack Ciattarelli, while 13% support radio host Bill Spadea; no other candidate reaches 5%.
“With less than six months until New Jersey’s gubernatorial primaries, 2021 Republican gubernatorial candidate Ciattarelli emerges as the early favorite in the primary, with presumably higher name recognition,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “On the Democratic side, the field is more divided, with Sherrill, Spiller, Baraka, Gottheimer, and Sweeney emerging as early contenders, though the 55% share of undecided voters leaves room for any candidate in the race to consolidate support.”
President Donald Trump has a 48% favorable rating among New Jersey voters, while 46% have an unfavorable view of Trump. Six percent are neutral. Governor Phil Murphy holds a 44% favorable rating, and 42% unfavorable rating. Twelve percent are neutral and 2% have not heard of Murphy.
“Governor Murphy is eight points more popular among women than men, 48% to 40%. The Governor has a 75% favorable rating among Democratic voters, dropping to 27% of independents and 14% of Republicans,” Kimball said.
A majority (63%) of voters feel their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living, 23% feel their income is even with the cost of living, and 15% feel their income is going up faster than the cost of living.
“Women are about nine points more likely to report their income falling behind the cost of living than men, though majorities of both men (58%) and women (67%) hold the sentiment,” Kimball said.
Voters are split on whether the state is headed in the right direction or is on the wrong track: 50% to 50%.
“Perception of the direction of the state varies by party: 70% of Democrats think the state is headed in the right direction, while 64% of Republicans and 68% of independents feel New Jersey is on the wrong track,” Kimball noted.
The economy is the top issue for New Jersey voters, at 44%, followed by housing affordability at 21%, immigration at 8%, healthcare at 7%, education at 6%, crime at 5%, and threats to democracy at 5%.
A majority of New Jersey voters (57%) oppose New York City’s new congestion pricing, charging vehicles entering Manhattan, while 21% support it, and 22% are unsure.
- Congestion pricing has the highest opposition among voters in their 50s (62%) and 60s (73%).
- Republican (64%) and independent (66%) voters oppose congestion pricing more strongly than Democrats (48%).
Sixty-four percent support a ban on cellphones in public K-12 school classrooms, while 20% oppose it, and 16% are neutral.
- Support for a ban on cellphones in public schools has the least support among voters under 30, at 48%, and increases with age to 81% of voters over 70.
The state legislature mandating free kindergarten in all New Jersey public and charter schools is widely supported: 74% support, 10% oppose, and 16% are neutral.
- Free kindergarten has the highest support among Democrats at 86%, compared to 67% of Republicans and 62% of independents who support it.
- While a majority of all age groups support free kindergarten, its support is highest among young voters, at 82% of voters under 40, and decreases with age to 68% of those over 70.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling New Jersey survey was conducted January 18-21, 2025. The sample of New Jersey registered voters, n=1,000, has an overall credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percentage points. The Democratic Primary has a sample size of n=437 with a credibility interval of +/- 4.6%. The Republican Primary has a sample size of n=334 with a credibility interval of +/-5.3%. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text, landlines via interactive voice response (phone list provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code; responses that were not matched to a unique New Jersey voter were removed from the final data set. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College/Nexstar Media.
