The latest Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of New Mexico likely voters finds Democratic incumbent Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham with 48% support and Republican Mark Ronchetti with 43%. Five percent are undecided, and 3% plan to vote for someone else. Regardless of whom they support, 60% of likely voters expect Lujan Grisham to win this November, while 40% expect Ronchetti to win.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “New Mexico Hispanic voters support Lujan Grisham over Ronchetti by a ten point margin, 50% to 40%; the Governor’s lead decreases to two points among White voters.” Kimball continued, “In addition, Lujan Grisham holds a 9-point lead among women voters, whereas among men, the gubernatorial election is even, 47% support Lujan Grisham and Ronchetti respectively.”
A majority of voters view both gubernatorial candidates favorably; 52% view Grisham favorably and 51% view Ronchetti favorably. Forty-six percent view Lujan Grisham unfavorably and 41% view Ronchetti unfavorably. Nine percent are unsure or have never heard of Ronchetti, compared to 2% who have not heard of or are neutral toward Lujan Grisham.
“Of voters that have not yet decided on their vote for Governor, 30% either have no opinion or have never heard of Ronchetti, compared to 6% of Lujan Grisham. This gives both candidates the opportunity to create a narrative around Ronchetti and influence those undecided voters over the next 8 weeks,” Kimball explained.
New Mexico likely voters are split on President Biden: 47% approve and 47% disapprove of the job he is doing as president. Biden’s approval in New Mexico is five points higher and his disapproval is four points lower than the August Emerson national survey.
In a hypothetical 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, 47% would support Biden and 41% Trump. Ten percent would vote for someone else, and 3% are undecided.
New Mexico voters are close to evenly split on what effect the FBI’s search of Mar-a-lago has on their support for Trump should he run in 2024. Thirty-five percent say it makes them less likely, 34% say more likely, and 31% say that it makes no difference.
The economy is the most important issue facing for 35% of voters, followed by abortion access (15%), healthcare (12%), crime (11%), immigration (6%), and education (6%).
Just over half of voters (51%) say the overturning of Roe v. Wade makes them more likely to vote in the 2022 Midterm Election, while 45% say it makes no difference on their intention to vote. Four percent say the overturning of Roe v. Wade makes them less likely to vote.
“Like many states, abortion access is quickly becoming an important issue for New Mexico’s Democrats.” Kimball continued, “For those who would hypothetically vote for President Biden in 2024, abortion access is their most important issue at 29%, followed by healthcare at 21%.”
Two-thirds of voters (66%) think crime in New Mexico has increased in the past year, 6% think it has increased, and 29% think it has stayed about the same. Forty percent of voters think the current pretrial detention policy in New Mexico has increased crime, 5% think it has decreased crime, and 24% think it has had no impact on crime. Thirty-one percent are not familiar with the New Mexico pretrial detention policy.
When asked if they, or someone they know, have had their car or home broken into in the past year, 37% say they know someone whose car or home has been broken into, 15% have had their home or car broken into, while 48% have not had their home or car broken into or know someone who has.
The Emerson College Polling New Mexico poll of likely voters was conducted September 8-11, 2022. The sample consisted of somewhat or very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, party registration, region and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, web survey via email, and an online panel.
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