The latest Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of New Mexico voters finds Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham with 49% support for her re-election, while 46% plan to support Republican Mark Ronchetti. Three percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, the race tightens to Lujan Grisham with 50% to Ronchetti’s 48%.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Lujan Grisham holds a 51% majority of support in the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts, whereas Ronchetti’s base of support lies in the 2nd District where he holds a 53% majority.”
Overall, Governor Lujan Grisham is viewed favorably by 50% of voters, whereas 47% have an unfavorable view of her. Ronchetti is viewed favorably by 49% of voters, whereas 46% view him unfavorably.
The economy is the top issue for 36% of New Mexico voters in determining their November vote, followed by abortion access (14%), threats to democracy (13%), and crime (11%).
President Biden holds a 49% disapproval in New Mexico, while 45% approve of the job he is doing. In a hypothetical 2024 presidential election between President Biden and former President Trump, 48% would vote for Biden and 38% for Trump. Ten percent would support someone else.
In the 1st Congressional District, 50% plan to vote for incumbent Democrat Melenie Stansbury, while 40% plan to vote for Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes. Eight percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Stansbury’s support increases to 54% support and Garcia Holmes to 43%.
Kimball noted, “Men and women are divided in the 1st District: men are almost tied between Democrats and Republicans, 47% support Stansbury and 46% Garcia Holmes, whereas a 53% majority of women support Stansbury for re-election, and 36% support Holmes. In addition, Hispanic voters are split between Holmes and Stansbury: 49% support Stansbury and 44% Holmes.”
In the 2nd Congressional District, 54% plan to vote for incumbent Republican Yvette Herrell, while 41% plan to vote for Democrat Gabriel Vasquez. Four percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Herrell’s support remains at 54%, and Vasquez’s support increases to 44%.
In the 3rd Congressional District, 53% plan to vote for Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez while 40% support Republican Alexis Martinez Johnson. Seven percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Leger Fernandez’s support increases to 58%, and Martinez Johnson’s remains at 40%.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill New Mexico poll was conducted October 25-28, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI), similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.02 percentage points. The 1st congressional district is n=372, with a margin of error of +/-5%. The 2nd congressional district is n=302, with a margin of error of +/-5.6%. The 3rd congressional district is n=326, with a margin of error of +/-5.4%. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, region, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 voter registration modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using cell phones via SMS-to-web, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, web survey via email, and an online panel.