(AP Photo/Mary Altaffer, Pool)

In New York’s newly-drawn 12th Congressional District, a new Emerson College Polling/Pix11/The Hill survey finds Rep. Jerry Nadler with a nine-point lead over his congressional colleague Rep. Carolyn Maloney, leading 40% to 31%; attorney Suraj Patel follows with 11%. Seventeen percent of voters are undecided ahead of the August 23rd primary. Since the May Emerson/Pix11/The Hill poll, Nadler gained 19 points, Maloney stayed the same, and Patel gained 7 points.


Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Male voters are overwhelmingly breaking in support of Nadler for Congress over Maloney; 46% to 22% compared to May when Maloney led this group 26% to 22%. On the other hand, female voters are statistically even; 38% support Maloney and 36% support Nadler which is down from May when Maloney led 35% to 20% among women.”

In determining voters’ decision later this month, a plurality of 12th District voters (27%) say guns and crime is the most important issue determining their vote for US Congress. Twenty-one percent say abortion is their determining issue, followed by the economy (13%), homelessness (8%), bipartisan gridlock (10%), and transportation (3%).

Kimball noted, “Among those who say guns and crime are the most important issue determining their vote, 41% plan to vote for Maloney while 25% support Nadler and 15% support Patel. For those whom abortion is the deciding issue, 45% break for Nadler and 44% Maloney. Those who say the economy is their deciding issue support Nadler over Maloney: 47% to 21%.”

Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, about nine in ten voters (91%) are very (72%) or somewhat (19%) concerned about the Supreme Court overturning its Obergefell v. Hodges decision that decided same-sex marrigae was a constitutional right. 

President Joe Biden holds a 81% job approval among 12th District primary voters, 13% disapprove of the job he is doing as president and 6% are neutral. Despite the President’s high approval, voters in the 12th District are nearly split on whether he should be the Democratic nominee for president in 2024: 51% think he should be and 49% think he should not be.

Mayor Eric Adams holds a 25% job approval, while half of voters (50%) disapprove of the job he is doing as Mayor. A quarter of voters (25%) are neutral. 

Regarding the impact of gun safety legislation recently passed by Congress, a majority of voters (60%) think the legislation will make some difference on the amount of gun violence in the US, 29% think it will make no difference on the amount of gun violence, and 7% think it will make a major difference on the amount of gun violence; 3% are unfamiliar with the legislation. 

Seventy-three percent (73%) say diverse representation is very (41%) or somewhat (33%) important in determining their vote for US Congress. Twenty-seven percent (27%) say diverse representation is not too important (16%) or not at all important (11%). 

On the local issue of a congestion pricing plan that would add tolls for drivers who travel south of 60th street in Manhattan, 45% of respondents support the pricing plan, 34% oppose the plan, and 21% are unsure. 

Caller ID

The Emerson College Polling survey of the 12th Congressional District in New York was conducted August 1-2, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely Democratic primary voters, n=1,000, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, race/ethnicity, and education based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.