Majority of Democratic Primary Voters Think Inflation Reduction Act will Reduce Inflation

The final Emerson College Polling/Pix11/The Hill survey of New York’s 12th District voters finds Rep. Jerry Nadler pulling ahead of his congressional colleague Rep. Carolyn Maloney, 43% to 24%, while 14% support Attorney Suraj Patel. Nineteen percent are still undecided ahead of the Tuesday primary. When undecided voters’ support is allocated, Nadler’s support increases to 51%, Maloney to 29%, and Patel to 19%. Since the August 5 NY12 poll, Nadler increased his initial ballot support by three points, Maloney lost seven points, and Patel gained three points.

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “In the final week of the primary election, Nadler has solidified his base of support, Patel has gained traction, while Maloney has lost her base of women voters. Back in May, Maloney led Nadler among women by 15 points, which narrowed to a two-point lead in early August, and now in the final week of the primary, Maloney is losing women to Nadler by 12 points. 

A majority of voters in the 12th district hold a favorable opinion of both Nadler and Maloney; 76% have a very (41%) or somewhat (35%) favorable view of Nadler while 66% have a very (28%) or somewhat (38%) favorable view of Maloney. Fifteen percent hold an unfavorable view of Nadler, 26% hold an unfavorable view of Maloney. This compares to 46% who have a very (15%) or somewhat (31%) favorable view of Suraj Patel; 25% have an unfavorable view, and 23% are unsure of their opinion on Patel.

Regarding the recently-signed-into-law Inflation Reduction Act, a majority of Democratic primary voters (57%) think inflation will lower as a result of the legislation, 25% think it will have no impact, 8% think inflation will increase, and 11% have never heard of the act. 

A plurality of respondents (47%) believe that funding for the New York Police Department (NYPD) should increase; 24% believe that funding should increase a lot, and 23% believe it should increase a little, 9% think it should stay the same, 11% think it should decrease a little, and 14% think it should decrease a lot. 

A majority of Democratic primary voters (51%) say a candidate opposing President Biden running for reelection makes no difference on their vote, whereas 29% say it makes them more likely to oppose a candidate, and 19% say it makes them less likely to oppose a candidate.

President Biden holds a 79% approval among Democratic primary voters in the 12th District, while 14% disapprove of the job he is doing as president. Conversely, 30% approve of the job Mayor Adams is doing as New York City Mayor, while 44% disapprove and 26% are neutral.

Caller ID

The Emerson College Polling survey of the 12th Congressional District in New York was conducted August 12-17, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely Democratic primary voters and those who already voted, n=895, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, race/ethnicity, and education based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines, and an online panel.